TOGETHER WITH
Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on the agenda today…
Inflation comes in softer than expected, Canada f*cks around and finds out, and did we just make a trade deal with China?
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 19 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
You’re soft
Better late than never, I guess…
At long last, we got September CPI data. The government shutdown shuttered the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which meant there was no one around to hit “Calculate Now” on bls_ConsumerPriceIndex_FINAL_v3.xlsx…
That is, until the SEAL Team 6 of data nerds put the team on their backs and returned to the office to run the numbers.
Survey says…
Inflation (missionary and core) jumped by 3% (annually) in September. And the only thing that mattered was that both prints came in below the forecasts of the smartest guys in the room.
As you probably already guessed, stocks ripped on the news that CPI came in softer than an overweight, middle-aged male after six whiskeys neat. New all-time highs all around.
Why? Because the print all but guarantees a rate cut later this week. And depending on whether the labor market cooperates (read: unemployment continues to rise), we could be looking at the jumbo variety of cuts (50 bips) in December.
WTF could it mean for us?
Every lame stream newsletter tells you “wHaT iT MeAnS.” At The Water Coolest, we predict tomorrow’s headlines today…
🔮 Wall Street Journal headline on 10/29/25 (probably): "Federal Reserve Cuts Rates 0.25% as Inflation Cools to 3%, But Warns of 'Data-Dependent' Future Moves"
Mental Health Isn’t Just a Perk, It’s a Power Move
You optimize your portfolio, fine-tune your side hustle, and strategize your next big move. But when was the last time you checked in… with yourself? BetterHelp makes therapy easier to start than pretending everything's fine on Slack. Get matched with a licensed therapist in under 24 hours. Use your HSA or FSA funds, and for a limited time, get 25% off your first month.
+ That’s all she wrote… Sam Altman has officially won the AI wars…
Just a few days after Sam proved that he’s horny af and will allow erotica on OpenAI, the CEO of Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 1.39% ) AI said, “that’s just not a service we’re going to provide.” Bill Gates would never…
+ The 51st state bout to catch these hands…
Canada just trolled POTUS bigly with an ad featuring former President Ronald Reagan warning about the dangers of tariffs…
It’s official: Ontario’s new advertising campaign in the U.S. has launched.
Using every tool we have, we’ll never stop making the case against American tariffs on Canada. The way to prosperity is by working together.
Watch our new ad.
— #Doug Ford (#@fordnation)
11:06 AM • Oct 16, 2025
The White House is big mad at our neighbors to the north, who are just asking to get annexed. The Executive Branch claims that Reagan’s words were taken out of context. It was a real Reagan speech, but Canada was masterful with its edits (who is going to tell them that they could have just made it all up with Sora?).
But it appears the country with just one road has severely underestimated the GOP’s reverence for Ronny Reagan. Because Donny Politics clapped back in a major way. On Friday, he said he was ending trade talks with Canada, and on Saturday, the President announced additional 10% tariffs, citing their “serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act.”
It probably didn’t help Canada that the Blue Jays won game 1 of the World Series on Friday night…
+ I’ll take “Things No One Understands But Will Invest In Anyway,” Ken...
AMD $AMD ( ▲ 2.51% ) shares popped on Friday on news that IBM could use their chips for quantum computing error correction algorithms… whatever the f*ck that means. And in just 4 short years, IBM $IBM ( ▲ 1.97% ) promises a “large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer.” Have they tried just asking ChatGPT how to make it 3 years?
+ Good day to be a soy boy…
We’ve got a (preliminary framework of a) trade deal with China, you guys. Ahead of POTUS’ meeting with President Xi this week, trade negotiators from both sides got together in Kuala Lumpur for some proverbial economic fluffing.
According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as part of the deal, the US would not implement the proposed 100% tariffs set to go into effect on November 1st and resume shipments of soybeans to China. Speaking of China… they’ll promise to revisit their stance on effectively banning shipments of rare earth metals.
The two leaders will also reportedly discuss the fentanyl crisis, port fees, and the TikTok transfer.
+ US stocks “closed at new heights on Friday as cool inflation data spurred optimism among investors that the Federal Reserve can stay on its rate-cutting path, boosting the U.S. economy and justifying higher valuations for equities.” (CNBC)
+ The 10-year yield “fluttered around 4% on Friday as investors assessed a key September inflation reading that came in cooler than expected. The release of the price report was delayed by the three-week-old federal government shutdown.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “fell on Friday as skepticism crept into the market about the Trump administration’s commitment to sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies over the war in Ukraine.” (Reuters)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks there’s a 90% chance Grokipedia drops before the end of the year. (Polymarket)
⏪ On Friday…
+ Procter & Gamble, General Dynamics, and HCA Holdings reported before the open
+ The September CPI report dropped
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Waste Management, Celestica, Cadence Design Systems, NXP Semiconductors, Confluent, Nucor, and Brown & Brown drop earnings after the close
Friday, I asked, “What is the right # of chicken tenders that should come in a basket?”
30.4% of you said, “4.”
Here’s what some of you guys had to say…
3: “with the caveat that 3 BIG tenders should be the equivalent of like 5-6 smaller ones.”
5: “I haven’t ordered a basket of chicken tenders since maybe the 90’s. Sure, fast food or shared nuggets/tenders have happened, but not as the centerpiece of a meal.”
6: “Who are these sickos saying “4?””
4: “Anytime I see 3 pc, I feel like I need to order the next one up. But 6 is a little much”
7: “Damn, you can tell I’m fat…”
Here’s today’s question…
I do find this just amazing
— #Tom Goodwin (#@tomfgoodwin)
4:10 PM • Oct 23, 2025
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.