Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on tap today… Iran is opening up the Strait to oil (probably), Meta AI didn’t hear no bell, and we finally caught Satoshi (not really).
Enjoy the next 3 minutes and 43 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
We Strait, homie
Everyone: “So can we get oil flowing again now that there’s a ceasefire?”
Iran: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Lucky for everybody who is generally anti-nuclear winter, Uncle Sam and the folks in Tehran reached a ceasefire prior to the end of #47’s civilization-ending countdown clock Tuesday night.
Which means yesterday, all that new peace(ish) on Earth had markets bricked up.
The Dow popped 2.8%, the S&P 500 was up 2.5%, and the Nasdaq jumped 2.8%. Oh, and oil dropped to $94 per barrel, which, hell yeah.
So, oil is flowing freely thru the Strait now, right? Right?
Not quite…
A few “dry cargo” vessels (read: no oil) made it through the Strait yesterday, but the situation remains more fluid than your blue-haired barista.
Iran is apparently looking to collect tolls for oil tankers, paid in cryptocurrency, of course. Thank you for your service, Citrini analyst #3.
Oh, and in other de-escalation news…
Donny Tariffs is immediately back on his bullsh*t (think: tariffs).
#47 is planning to impose 50% tariffs on any goods imported to the US from any nation supplying weapons to Iran… which, fair.
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+ “Still gonna send it” - Zuck, probably
Meta’s $META ( ▲ 6.5% ) AI dept. just snagged an ultra-rare W. Zuck’s new model “Muse Spark” (originally code-named "Avocado”) dropped yesterday, and apparently, as far as AI models go, it’s pretty mid…
But luckily for Zuckily, “mid” is essentially a yuge AI win for Meta at this point. Shares popped 6.5% on the day. Friendly reminder that this is the first drop from the new chief AI officer Alexandr Wang, formerly of Scale AI.
Yesterday, the NY Times went all “elementary, my dear Watson” and claimed that the case of the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto’s secret identity had been cracked. According to investigative reporter John Carreyrou (think: same dude who broke the Theranos story in 2015), we have the intel to make a call…
Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream is the creator of Michael Saylor’s sh*tcoin… maybe. Of course, Bruce Wayne Adam himself denies the allegation/compliment, which is exactly what the real Satoshi would do… *puts on tinfoil hat*
+ I’ll believe it when I see it…
The March Fed minutes dropped yesterday, and a rate cut is still in play. So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.
Meanwhile, the odds of a rate cut in the year of our lord 2026 tripled yesterday following the “ceasefire” announcement. Friendly reminder: Iran claims the ceasefire was already broken by the US…
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> Atlantic magazine gave Mormon reporter $10K to bet on NFL games — and he became ‘degenerate gambler’ (NY Post) // I mean, if Atlantic wants to run it back again, I can take that bullet.
> Oracle axes over 700 workers — the first wave in a bloodbath that could engulf 30K (NY Post) // Larry Ellison be like…
> Personal assistant pleads guilty to swindling $10M from Salomon Brothers partner, wife (CNBC) // Bull case for AI agents…
> Perplexity: still putting up numbers even though no one cares…
Yesterday, I asked, “Is it ever acceptable for a grown man to dress in a costume?”
52.4% of you said, “Only in high pressure situations (i.e. taking kids trick or treating, wife insists, etc.).” Good to know…
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my response in italics)…
Only in high pressure situations: “Halloween only... comicon types should be arrested.” Give this guy a badge.
Never. Wouldn’t be caught dead in a costume: “I am the first guy to throw on an ugly sweater, its not much worse than my everyday wear. But, costume - not a fucking chance. Tyler - please tell me same or I might stop paying for your free newsletter.” This is the hill you wanna die on huh?
Totally fine. Dress in a costume whenever you want: “40 year old dudes dress as their favorite 21 to 27 year old football player every Sunday from August to January. Let those freak flags fly, daddiez.” Not sure wearing a jersey counts as a “costume”… chat?
Other (write-in): “Furries need love too!” Banned.
Only in high pressure situations: “I think we found the furries in the "totally fine" group and the who-hurt-you folks in the "wouldn't be caught dead" crew.” As usual, the moderates have it.
Here’s today’s question(s)…
Couldn't be more jealous of that Atlantic reporter who got $10k of house money to gamble on the NFL with. How quick would you gamble away a free $10k on sports?
+ US stocks “notched big gains on Wednesday amid growing hopes for an end to the Middle East war after President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Iran.” (Investing.com)
+ The 10-year yield was “down sharply Wednesday following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “prices saw double digit percentage declines on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire and Washington said traffic was picking up through the critical Strait of Hormuz.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “pared some gains on Wednesday, but remained solidly higher amid a massive rally in risk assets following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.” (Investing.com)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks there’s a 45% chance DJT announces the end of military ops in Iran by April 21. (Polymarket)
⏪ Yesterday…
+ Delta Air Lines reported before the bell
+ Applied Digital and Constellation Brands dropped earnings after hours
+ The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its last meeting
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Blackberry and Byrna report after the bell
+ The core PCE price index report for March will be released. Economists forecast an increase to 3.1% for the core rate
Oh, and one more thing…
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