Hey there weekday warriors,
Honestly, the only thing Google has got going for it at the moment is that it’s not Bing.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 28 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
+ US stocks “slipped on Monday and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped past 4% for the first time since August ahead of a week of key inflation data and the start of earnings season.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The 10-year Treasury yield “jumped back above 4% on Monday amid stronger labor market readings and despite the start of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting campaign last month.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “settled more than 3% higher on Monday, with Brent surpassing $80 per barrel for the first time since August as the increased risk of a region-wide Middle East war jolted investors out of record bearish positions amassed last month.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “rose on Monday, extending a rebound over the weekend as signs of resilience in the U.S. economy helped support broader risk appetite.” (Investing)
+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia +2.2% 2) Super Micro Computer +15.7% 3) Visa -1.4%
The market moves you need to know about…
+ Something tells me I’m about to get an email from Motley Fool saying ‘This is a once-in-a-generation Category 5 opportunity.’ Shares of Generac, the maker of generators, jumped 8.5% on news that Hurricane Milton may legitimately wipe Florida off the map.
– Meanwhile, insurance stocks took a beating as Milton barrels toward parts of the country still reeling from Hurricane Helene. Florida-based Universal Insurance, which has major exposure to the Gulf Coast, fell 19.5% on the day.
Victory royale
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but there are two people you should always be nice to: 1) the weird kid in high school who gives ‘lone wolf’ vibes (because, well, you know…) 2) Tim Sweeney, CEO of Epic Games
Just a few years after scoring a (relatively minor) victory over Apple in an antitrust suit it brought against the iPhone maker’s App Store, Epic has managed to send Google’s (-2.4%) Play Store to the gulag.
The maker of Fortnite convinced a judge that Google’s app store is a monopoly. And, well, maybe they’ve got a point…
Google has put on a masterclass in how to violate the Sherman Antitrust Act via its Play Store.
The Google+ maker has made damn sure other app stores couldn’t exist in the Android ecosystem by blocking them from the Play Store. And just in case that didn’t deter competition, it barred apps from being anything but monogamous. It did so by way of threats (think: you’ll get pulled from the ‘Play Store’) and/or just straight-up bribing paying the best apps to remain exclusive.
Oh, and did I mention that it forced those apps to collect payments via the Play Store platform… so it could collect the Google equivalent of the Apple tax? Read: Google took a 15% to 30% cut of all transactions on the Play Store. You know, all the transactions that had to take place on the Play Store…
F*ck around and find out…
Apple might have gotten a slap on the wrist for doing the exact same sketchy sh*t… but Google wasn’t so lucky.
Seriously, Sundar Pichai is fortunate he isn’t roommates with Diddy and SBF right now.
From here on out…
The Play Store will be forced to play nice with and allow downloads of rival app stores
All Android apps will be allowed to whore themselves out to other app stores
And for a period of three years…
Google can’t share revenue with anyone who distributes Android apps (think: it can’t buy them off)
It won't be allowed to pay developers or share revenue in hopes of an app going Play Store exclusive
Alphabet can’t cut fat checks to phone manufacturers to be the preferred app store on Android devices
Apps will no longer be forced to use the Play Store billing system (friendly reminder: this is the only punishment Apple is currently dealing with)
What’s next?
Imagine thinking Google isn’t going to (re-)lawyer up and appeal.
Google claims it could cost as much as $600B to make the changes necessary to comply with the orders… and is it just me or does it feel like Alphabet’s legal counsel just went all ‘Dr. Evil’ with its “analysis?”
No matter the outcome, this might not even be a top 3 current sh*tstorm for Google. Not only is it fighting two additional antitrust battles, on the search and ads fronts, but it’s dealing with the existential crisis that is AI (and what it means for the digital advertising market).
+ “People can change.” - everyone who suddenly trusts Super Micro (+15.7)
Shares of the server maker popped on news that it’s (allegedly) shipping more than 100k graphic processing units per quarter.
Just one problem (ok, a few problems): this is the same company that’s weeks behind in releasing its earnings report… and is being investigated for large-scale accounting fraud.
Spoiler: no one holds back their earnings report and then surprises to the upside.
+ If you or a loved one were hurt or injured by Sam Bankman-Fried, you are entitled to compensation…
Yesterday, the FTX bankruptcy judge signed off on a payback plan that’s about to make it rain (well, kinda…) on most of FTX’s creditors and individual investors. Everyone who got f*cked over worse than whichever FTX employee got stuck next to SBF at the company-wide gang bangs will receive ~119% of their claims from back in 2022 (think: the amount they had in their account at the time of the bankruptcy).
How’d FTX's new CEO pull it off?
Well, for starters, bitcoin is up ~250% since the day FTX shut down. Oh, and the new skeleton crew winding down SBF’s affairs sold off its stake in AI startup Anthropic for nearly $900M.
But don’t be too jealous of FTX creditors. That 119% payout is a whole lot less sexy when you consider investors’ frozen funds didn’t get to partake in Bitcoin’s absolute mooning over the past two years.
No word on whether FTX’s Margaritaville tab will be settled as part of the plan.
+ McDonald’s (-0.9%) out here biting the hand that feeds. The Golden Arches is suing pretty much all the major beef producers in the US, claiming that they’ve been colluding to drive up prices for nearly a decade.
They aren’t the only ones calling out Tyson, JBS, and others. Target, BJ’s, and Aldi have filed similar suits.
Probably just a coincidence that the home of the broken McFlurry machine is trying to squeeze its suppliers as it struggles to slash prices.
+ Many Americans would rather talk about politics than money. Not having those conversations can cost you. If your friend group isn’t talking about politics, money, and whether the Earth is flat, you need to find new friends.
+ 5 Housing Markets That Will Plummet in Value Before the End of 2025. Don’t go down with the ship.
+ You Have Homeowners Insurance. Is It Enough to Rebuild Your House? Spoiler: probably not. Enjoy living under a bridge.
🔥 Jeff Bezos claims a one-hour ritual led to his success - now science says he's right. I call bullsh*t… I spend 5 hours a day doing this and my net worth is still 4-figures…
🔥 Mark Cuban got drunk and spent $125k on this. I get drunk and buy two Domino’s pizzas for myself.
FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.
⏪ Yesterday, Nvidia’s 3-day AI summit got underway
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Pepsi reports before the bell
+ P&G hosts its annual meeting
+ GM holds its Investor Day
+ The Smartsheet Engage conference begins… which I’m told is the Catalina Wine Mixer of enterprise SaaS workflow management events
+ Global Gaming Expo gets underway in Vegas
Yesterday, I asked, “Does Lightning McQueen (the anthropomorphic race car from the hit movie 'Cars') need health insurance, life insurance, or car insurance?”
Car insurance wins with 52.2%. Health came in second.
I’m sorry, but anyone who said “car” is wrong. Health is the only correct answer.
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)…
Car: "He doesn't have a family so Life Ins is superfluous. Health Ins doesn't cover a new motor (his heart) or any of the thousands of mechanical parts that might break or get damaged (in a crash). The only thing that would cover him in the event of needing replacement/fixing would be Car Ins."
Car: "Movie f*cks. Great question"
Health: "I would have gone with no insurance if it was an option. Cars universe has clearly built a utopian society where insurance isn’t a thing."
Health: "The universe of “Cars” and Radiator Springs is clearly a capitalist society and there is no way that the insurance industry, which is essentially a socialist undertaking at its roots (risk pooling) yet manages to turn astronomically high profits in our own world, has not diversified to make both health and life insurance essential for wealth protection for anthropomorphic automobiles. Blanket coverage with car insurance would be leaving dollars on the table."
And here’s today’s questions…
Most filthy rich self-made people I’ve met are weird/eccentric in some way…
Do self-made super-wealthy people get weird because they're rich? Or are they rich because they're weird?
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.