TOGETHER WITH

We used to be a country. A proper country.

Enjoy the next 5 minutes and 1 second of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

– tyler

“Wasn’t me.” - Shaggy and POTUS

Things you hate to see: 0.3% Q1 GDP shrinkage (“I was in the pool!”) in the land of the free and the home of the brave. That’s well below the 0.4% growth economists had estimated. Woof.

The US economy fumbled the bag in Q1 2025. And everyone’s about to say the ‘r-word’ so mf loud.

President Trump promptly blamed a “Biden overhang” and pulling off the tariff Band-Aid (friendly reminder: most weren’t in place in Q1).

Donny Politics took to Truth Social to get his spin zone on…

#47 went full CYA for next quarter, too. During a White House meeting, he said: “And you could even say the next quarter is sort of Biden.”

And Wall Street bought it hook, line, and sinker, giving exactly zero f*cks. Shares rallied into the close and the S&P 500 closed positive… again.

So WTF happened?

Imports happened.

Goods coming into America soared 41.3%. I’ll spare you the ChatGPT question: that widened the trade deficit and shaved about 4.8 percentage points off US GDP growth.

You see, American companies were stockpiling cheap goods from China and other countries with fat tariffs (but mostly China) to avoid the pending levies.

On the bright side, we can probably expect at least a temporary Q2 snap-back once the pre-tariff hoarding slows down. So, we’ve got that going for us.

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+ Cue “we’re so back” posts from the tech bros…

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.92% ) and Meta $META ( ▼ 2.33% ) both crushed earnings reports on Wednesday and shares understandably popped. Microsoft came in with an earnings beat and showed 13% YoY growth. Cloud and Azure revenue (think: AI) put the team on its back with 33% growth and $26.7B revenue, so it makes sense that Satya is spending $80B this year on AI capex…

Meanwhile, over in Zuckland, Q1 sales jumped 16% YoY, and (big surprise), Zuck’s also planning to spend a sh*tload significant amount of dinero on AI and data centers (think: $64-$72B) in 2025. “But wait, there’s more (stuff we can waste money on)”. Turns out, Meta’s Reality Labs unit (read: the metaverse) posted an operating loss of $4.2B. Stop trying to make the metaverse happen.

+ ADP job data just dropped… if you’re into that kinda thing…

April ADP payrolls just made everyone nervous again. Hiring slowed in April, with private sector payrolls up just 62k for the month (friendly reminder: that’s down bad from March’s 147k). That marks the smallest gain since July 2024. Leisure and hospitality added 27k jobs, while education and health services dropped 23k.

+ Ok, maybe we deserve to be wiped off of planet Earth by AI…

+ “Let me get this straight. You think the CEO is the problem?” 

“I do. And I’m tired of pretending it’s not.” - Tesla board members

Turns out, recently laid-off federal workers aren’t the only ones who hate Elon right now. Apparently, some Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 1.22% ) board members have been making moves over the last month to search for a CEO successor to the First Buddy.

With Q1 profits down 71%, Elon’s promise to step back from Washington and get back on the EV grind might be too little, too late. The board is already talking with a “major search firm” for a replacement. Just a thought… Trevor Milton was recently pardoned and #OpenToWork.

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+ Think outside the earnings.

Yum Brands $YUM ( ▲ 1.69% ) (think: the legends responsible for Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and KFC) posted mixed Q1 earnings with a top line miss but a bottom line beat. Sales across the board rose 12%, but Pizza Hut struggled to keep up with the other 2 GOATed chains. Same-store sales dropped 2%. Meanwhile, Yum’s favorite child, Taco Bell, put up the kind of numbers that make shareholders quiero mas with same-store sales growth at 9%.

+ OpenAI just had to roll back the latest ChatGPT update for giving unstable users some truly freaky advice. Turns out, the same people that tell you ‘the robots are going to take over, man’ are the same schizos that ChatGPT is talking into leaving their families and dumping their mental health meds.

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+ US stocks “recovered from steep early-session Wednesday as Wall Street capped a volatile month and investors digested a deluge of economic data, led by the first contraction of the US economy in three years.” (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year yield “fluctuated Wednesday as investors digested key economic data that showed hot price pressures and an unexpected contraction in the U.S. economy.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “prices settled down on Wednesday and recorded the largest monthly drop in almost 3-1/2 years after Saudi Arabia signaled a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, while the global trade war eroded the outlook for fuel demand.” (Reuters)

⏪ Yesterday…

+ Caterpillar, ADP, Garmin, Etsy, GE Healthcare, Wingstop, UBS, Humana, Western Digital, TotalEnergies, Yum China, GSK, and Brookfield reported before the bell

+ Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Qualcomm, VICI, eBay, Coca-Cola, KLA, Sprouts, Teladoc, Confluent, Enovix, Cheesecake Factory, Albemarle, Crown Castle, Equinix, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Public Storage, and Aflac dropped earnings after the bell

+ The core PCE price index report for March was released

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…

+ Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald's, Roblox, CVS Health, Moderna, Hershey's, Estee Lauder, KKR, Cameco, Linnde, Howmet, Builders FirstSource, Wayfair, Sirius XM, Kellanova, The Southern Company, Carrier, W. W. Grainger, Air Products & Chemicals, Dominion Energy, and Medical Properties Trust report before the bell

+ Amazon, Apple, MicroStrategy, Airbnb, Reddit, Block, Duolingo, BigBear.ai, Roku, Twilio, Atlassian, Riot Platforms, Zeta, Maplebear, Amgen, Stryker, DexCom, Canadian National Railway, Motorola, GoDaddy, and Lumen report after the bell

+ Li Auto, Nio, XPeng, BYD Company, and ZEEKR Intelligent will be on watch with monthly deliveries reports due in amid the trade war backdrop

Yesterday, I asked, “Do you think you could eat $1,000 worth of McDonald's in 24 hours?”

82.7% of you answered Hell no. I didn’t realize 82.7% of my readers are cowards.

Here’s what some of you guys had to say…

Here’s today’s question…

Oh, and one more thing…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.