TOGETHER WITH
Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on the agenda today…
Now that TikTok US valuation is starting to make sense, Electronic Arts is about to be part of the largest leveraged buyout ever, and inflation didn’t hear no bell.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 29 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
PS, loving The Water Coolest? Forward it to someone who will never be able to beat you at Madden. If you CC me ([email protected]), I’ll send you both something.
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The TikTok math ain't mathing
Live look at the TikTok US investors not named ByteDance.
Remember that TikTok US deal that seemed too good to be true?
The one where China ceded 80% control to the US (and appeared to hardly put up a fight)?
You know… the deal where the math wasn’t mathing (friendly reminder: TikTok US was valued at just $14B despite pretty much everyone expecting that number to be closer to $30B)?
Well, it turns out there’s a reason President Xi and ByteDance were cool with handing over control of the most valuable algorithm ever created…
Bytedance will end up with ~50% of the newly formed company’s girthy profits. Not 20%, which would be commensurate with its ownership stake.
It’s mostly thanks to a hefty “licensing fee.” TikTok US investors will have to fork over a big chunk of revenue (yes, top line) to ByteDance in return for access to the algorithm. Ok, but they tried vibe coding it in a weekend?
All of this probably explains the relatively low valuation JD Vance gave to TikTok US (to be fair, he went to Yale, not Wharton…). Friendly reminder: the VP said last week that the deal put TikTok US’ valuation at $14B. Meanwhile, the Street's estimates had topped $30B.
Of course, none of it actually matters if China and Bytedance don’t actually agree to hand over their algo to Larry Ellison and Oracle…
You see, there still hasn’t been official word from the People’s Republic that this is a done deal.
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+ EA Sports… it’s in the game…
Rumor has it that Electronic Arts $EA ( ▲ 14.87% ) is about to take its talents private. On Friday, the Journal reported that Silver Lake and the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund are planning to take the game maker private as part of a $50B deal.
In case you were wondering, this would be the biggest leveraged buyout of all time if the deal closes. The Sims LBO expansion pack is going to go incredibly hard. Shares popped nearly 20% on the news.
+ Everyone: *hears what Howard Rubin is accused of*
Also everyone: *takes one look at Howard Rubin*
Everyone all at once: “Oh, yeah, he did it.”
Wall Street legend Howard Rubin was arrested Friday (a few miles from where I live), on allegations of some pretty heinous sex crimes. Think: trafficking women to his sex dungeon. He was accused of something pretty similar by 3 women in FL back in 2017.
Rubin helped pioneer mortgage-backed securities and made Solomon Brothers and Merrill Lynch a f*ck ton of money in the 80s. You might recall his exploits were chronicled in Michael Lewis’ Liar’s Poker.
+ Ok, hear me out… we just agree that 3% inflation is the new norm. On Friday, we got a look at the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. And like the risk of heart disease and diabeetus for the average American, it remained elevated. Core PCE came in at 2.9% on an annual basis, which, to be fair, was in line with expectations.
+ Live Nation’s PR department deserves a raise…
+ Time to start checking which plane you’re flying on again, you guys.
Boeing $BA ( ▲ 3.62% ) just got approval from the FAA to sign off on 737 MAXs before delivering them to customers. You might recall that after a handful of deadly crashes, federal aviation officials took over review back in 2019. Just me, or does this feel like the aviation equivalent of allowing Enron to do their own audits in-house?
+ Is it going to come pre-loaded with a U2 album? Asking for a friend who is never going to let that go…
Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.79% ) has reportedly taken a page out of Zuck’s playbook. It’s apparently copy-pasting ChatGPT (just like every other chatbot maker). AAPL launched “Veritas” (which I think is Latin for “better late than never”) internally with the goal of testing its updated AI-powered Siri.
+ US stocks “climbed on Friday, but still finished the week lower following the release of crucial inflation data.” (CNBC)
+ The 10-year yield was “little changed on Friday as investors analyzed the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the U.S. economy.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “prices rose on Friday as Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure cut the country’s fuel exports. ” (Reuters)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks there’s a 28% chance there will be a US-Venezuela military engagement before October 31st. (Polymarket)
⏪ On Friday…
+ The core PCE price index report for August dropped (spoiler: that’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Best Buy, Royal Bank of Canada, Kohl's, Li Auto, and Burlington Stores report before the bell
+ Costco, Dell, Marvell, Zscaler, Ulta Beauty, Uipath, Elastic NV, NetApp, The Gap, Ambarella, and American Eagle report after the bell
+ Sony Group will spin off its financial services arm, Sony Financial Group, in a major restructuring move. More than 80% of Sony Financial shares will be distributed to Sony shareholders via a dividend-in-kind
+ FedEx will hold its annual meeting. Investors will be looking for news of the business split scheduled for next year
Friday, I asked, “Who ya got in the Ryder Cup?”
81.4% of you said “USA USA USA!“
Here’s what some of you guys had to say…
USA USA USA!: “I don't need ICE knocking on my door.”
Europe: “Just wait and see”
USA USA USA!: “Although our golfer are bunch of whiny p*ssies. ”
Europe: “Cheering hard for USA, but I bet Erope as I'll pay for a win!"
USA USA USA!: “I’d feel dirty if I said otherwise. I also bet it. It’s Saturday and we are down bad…”
Here’s today’s question…
Hypothetical time. Some ground rules…
You need to get fired. Quitting doesn’t count. Nor do suspensions.
Your termination must also happen the same day. So, yeah, it has to be pretty bad.
You have to deal with all the social/legal consequences of what you do
You can’t tell anyone that you need to get fired just to get the money (duh… this is hypothetical question 101)
It's Monday morning so this seems fitting. You get $10M if you can get fired by the end of the day. Are you trying (bonus points for HOW you'd do it)?
This is almost as bad as this one.
— #High Yield Harry (#@HighyieldHarry)
10:27 AM • Sep 28, 2025
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.
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No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.