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Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on the agenda today…
It’s the Kelce brothers’ world, and we’re just living it, Lululemon gets trounced, and McDonald’s is picking a fight with sit-down restaurants.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 32 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
PS, loving The Water Coolest? Forward it to someone who has a beer fridge in the garage. If you CC me ([email protected]), I’ll send you both something.
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Super smashed brothers
“iT’s An INNovAtOr IN thE BeEr SecTor.” - the guy who just invested in Travis and Jason Kelce’s beer company at a $200M valuation, trying to pretend he invested for any reason besides Taylor Swift
Durational Capital Management, the PE shop that’s best known for being the owner of Bojangles, led a round that valued Travis and Jason’s Garage Beer brand at $200M. The Kelce brothers are investors and the face of the brand.
And it appears that Travis can move product without help from Sydney Sweeney. The company is expecting to do $70M in revenue this year, up from $20M in 2024.
Mr. Taylor Swift has managed to buck broader industry trends. Beer sales are declining across the board. Partially because Gen Z would rather talk to their AI girlfriends (or go California sober like a suburban housewife) than shotgun beers like an absolute legend. Plus, GLP-1s have wreaked havoc on sales of crispy bois.
Exhibit A: last week, Constellation Brands, the owner of Modelo, which dethroned Bud Light as America’s #1 beer in May 2023, slashed its guidance. You might find this hard to believe, but they cited “macroeconomic headwinds.”
Probably the only bright spot in the barley pop game is the (super) lite variety. Mich Ultras are selling like (low-carb, low-cal) hot cakes… because apparently our nation has become a bunch of soy boy betas who care how long they live. At 95 cals, Garage Beer appears to be capitalizing on consumers’ changing tastes.
WTF does it mean for us?
It’s probably safe to assume a massive chunk of the investment will go toward shoving Garage Beer down our throats this football season. So, get ready.
And if you ever have the misfortune of Garage Beer being the only beer left in the cooler, just offer to be the designated driver. Seriously, Kid Rock would have a Bud Light with Dylan Mulvaney before he drank one of these. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
How 433 Investors Unlocked 400X Return Potential
Institutional investors back startups to unlock outsized returns. Regular investors have to wait. But not anymore. Thanks to regulatory updates, some companies are doing things differently.
Take Revolut. In 2016, 433 regular people invested an average of $2,730. Today? They got a 400X buyout offer from the company, as Revolut’s valuation increased 89,900% in the same timeframe.
Founded by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso’s co-ownership tech reshapes the $1.3T vacation home market. They’ve earned $110M+ in gross profit to date, including 41% YoY growth in 2024 alone. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
The same institutional investors behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay backed Pacaso. And you can join them. But not for long. Pacaso’s investment opportunity ends September 18.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
+ Everyone: “Airplane wifi sucks.”
Amazon: “Hold. My. Beer.”
The only way I can imagine JetBlue $JBLU ( ▲ 1.62% ) can justify partnering with Amazon’s $AMZN ( ▲ 0.75% ) Project Kuiper for onboard wifi is that Andy Jassy made the airline an offer they couldn’t refuse. Amazon only has like 100 internet satellites in orbit, which means it’ll be more glitchy than your family’s Gateway 2000 after you downloaded Girls Gone Wild on LimeWire circa 2002. Not that it’s a contest (jk, it is), but Elon’s Starlink has more than 3.2k satellites beaming wifi down from the heavens.
+ Time to pour one out (probably a Negroni) for Giorgio Armani. The fashion legend and businessman died yesterday at 91. In 2023, his empire’s revenue topped $2.3B. Armani “power suits” were a staple on Wall Street in the 80s and 90s… and I’m just glad Giorgio doesn’t have to witness MDs rocking Lululemon and Hokas in the office anymore.
+ Honestly, the only way Lululemon $LULU ( ▲ 2.49% ) could be down worse is if it brought back its unhinged founder, Chip Wilson (see: the reason he wanted 3 Ls in the name and a pretty impressive track record of fat shaming). Shares fell 16% after the company slashed guidance for the year. Management pointed to margins being squeezed thanks to the de minimus exemption going the way of the company’s stranglehold on soccer moms (sup, ALO)…
+ McDonald’s $MCD ( ▲ 0.97% ) CEO Chris Kempczinski is out here fighting for the rights of servers at restaurants across the country. But not because he gives a damn about some wage-slave.
Grimace’s boss is butthurt that casual dining establishments can get away with paying servers less than minimum wage, since laws allow for tips to make up the difference. You might recall that people don’t tip at McDonald’s, which means the burger chain pays full (but certainly not livable) wages to employees.
CK has pulled McDonald’s out of the industry’s largest trade group and is pushing for minimum wage at all restaurants. Read: Chris K. wants everyone else to join him in the pit of despair. He sounds like he’s fun at parties.
+ The ADP jobs report told us what we kinda already knew: the job market in the US is dogsh*t. The economy added just 54k jobs, below the 75k expected by economists. On the bright side: rate cuts.
Today, we’ll get the official BLS report, which is much more likely to move markets.
+ The FTC would like a word. Welp, it appears that we’re in the part of the AI hype cycle where lawmakers and other government agencies shake their fists about “the impact on children”… and proceed to do literally nothing about it. The Federal Trade Commission is planning to send letters to OpenAI, Meta, and other AI chatbot makers requesting information relating to how their products are impacting the youths.
WTF does it mean for us?
Nothing. Literally nothing will come of this.
+ US stocks “rallied into the close on Thursday — with the S&P 500 Index hitting a record high — as softer-than-expected labor market data bolstered the case for interest-rate cuts, offsetting a string of disappointing technology earnings.” (Bloomberg)
+ The 10-year yield “continued to dip on Thursday as investors digested more weak data on the labor market.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “prices eased about 1% to a two-week low on Thursday on a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories last week and expectations that OPEC+ producers will increase output targets at a meeting this weekend.” (Reuters)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks there’s a 60% chance Jannik Sinner wins the US Open. (Kalshi)
⏪ Yesterday…
+ Broadcom, Lululemon, DocuSign, Uipath, Samsara, and Copart reported after the close
+ Samsung held its Galaxy Unpacked event. They unveiled the Galaxy S25 FE smartphone and the Galaxy Tab S11 series
+ The NFL season kicked off with my Dallas Cowboys playing the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ The August Jobs Report will be released, and literally nothing else matters, you guys
+ The Roblox Developer Conference will take place in San Jose, California
Yesterday, I asked, “Who ya got tonight?”
92.0% of you said “Eagles.“
Here’s what some of you guys had to say…
Eagles: “The Cowboys hype will die in the 2nd Quarter. I cannot wait for the measured response from their fanbase.”
Eagles: “Not a fan of either team, so I just have to pick the one on paper that is better.”
Eagles: “Prescott isn't worth $60M/yr. even if he was leading a better team like the Eagles.”
Cowboys: “legit just picked the cowboys as a contrarian pick. the spread and amount of money on the "sure-bet" eagles has me tingling and thinking there's an upset brewing. trap game for sure.”
Cowboys: “I was born here. Give me a break.”
Here’s today’s question…
Another hypothetical for you…
You get $37M but you have to go to bed at 7 PM every night and sleep for at least 12 hours for the rest of your life. You taking that deal?
I wonder what happened 18 years ago that would cause a sharp decline of birth rates across the board that we never really recovered from but the banks and large corporations did
— #tippity (#@tippity)
9:32 PM • Sep 3, 2025
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.