Hey there weekday warrior,
Do you smell that? It’s the sweet, sweet aroma of a government shutdown.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 22 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
+ US stocks “closed little changed as a rebound from the previous day's sell-off flopped with a hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve on its path for interest rates looming over markets.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The 10-year yield “continued to charge higher Thursday, one day after the Federal Reserve changed its outlook for how many times it will lower rates in 2025, and as the latest economic numbers confirmed that the economy remains robust even with today’s borrowing costs.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “fell on Thursday after central bankers in the U.S. and Europe signaled caution over further easing of monetary policy, fanning concerns that weak economic activity could dent demand for oil next year.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “fell below $100,000 as the Federal Reserve’s cautious outlook for interest-rate cuts hurt speculative investments.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Tesla -0.9% 2) Micron Technology -16.1% 3) Nvidia +1.3%
The market moves you need to know about…
+ FedEx is really out here boosting shareholder value. UPS’s more expensive cousin delivered shareholders an 8.2% bump after hours on the announcement that it would be spinning off its freight trucking division into a separate public company within the next 18 months. FedEx Freight has over 30k vehicles in North America and brought in more than $9B in revenue last year.
– Vertex Pharmaceuticals shares took an 11.3% dive after sharing that their highly anticipated non-opioid pain medication “suzetrigine” (who names this sh*t?) was unable to help with lower back and hip pain in trial sciatica patients compared to a placebo. The Sacklers be like “I remember my first painkiller…”
UpMarket has helped over 500 investors place $175M in the private market since 2019. Through UpMarket, accredited investors have invested in OpenAI, SpaceX, Nueralink, Anthropic, xAI and more.
All investments have the risk of loss. UpMarket is not associated with or endorsed by the above-listed companies. Only available to eligible accredited investors. View important disclosures at www.upmarket.co
Stop, drop, shut 'em down
Source: Giphy
Look on the bright side, Federal employees… you’ll get to do even less than normal during the holidays if the government shuts down…
Remember in September when Congress said “seems like a December problem” and kicked the government funding problem down the road? Welp, it’s December. And government funding (or lack thereof) is still a very real problem. Congress has not gotten its sh*t together, and, as such, has not passed new federal budget legislation.
Friendly reminder: the US government shuts down at midnight on December 20th if our elected officials cannot get a bill in front of POTUS to sign into law. That means all non-essential government employees (so, the ones the DOGE is going to fire anyway), will be furloughed. Nobody will get paid during the shutdown, but they’ll get checks for what they’re owed when Uncle Sam turns the lights back on.
The prognosis is not good…
On Wednesday, a bill was killed by President-elect Trump, and… wait for it… Elon Musk. Despite having exactly zero (official) authority combined, the duo tag-teamed the legislation publicly. Republicans heard the message loud and clear, overwhelmingly striking it down.
“Well, surely Republicans can get behind a Trump-backed spending bill!” - you, probably
Think again…
Last night, the House voted against a slimmed-down bill (seriously, this one was only 116 pages… the first version was more than 1,500) that was endorsed by Donny Politics. Every single Democrat voted against it, as did 38 Republicans.
The GOP Representatives couldn’t get behind the $100B in disaster and farm aid (which the left was pushing for) and the proposal to suspend the debt ceiling for 2 years. You might recall that #47 wants to just get rid of the debt ceiling altogether.
“Not great, Bob…”
It’s not entirely clear what “Plan B” “Plan C” is. Not only did the most recent bill come up short of a supermajority (which it needs to get fast-tracked), but it wasn’t even that close to a majority. That means it might not find its way back to the House floor (even after a few red lines).
Translation? There’s a better chance of the government telling us wtf is actually flying around NJ than getting a funding deal done…
Side note: when do we get to start talking about the trillion-dollar coin again?
+ You can call Peter Coker Sr. a lot of things, but he certainly isn’t an absentee father…
Peter Coker Sr. and Jr. just pled guilty to committing securities fraud by artificially boosting shares of Hometown International. And I had to beg my dad to show up to my Little League games…
In case you’re wondering, yes, this is an update on the story about the father-son duo who ran a money-losing deli (Your Hometown Deli) in NJ… with a $100M market cap.
You might recall that hedge fund manager David Einhorn was among the first to call BS on Hometown in a letter to clients calling out the absurdity of the market. He famously said, “The pastrami must be amazing.”
Around this time last year, the father and son’s co-conspirator James Patten pled guilty to the same charges and presumably went full rat on his partners. Coker Sr. and Jr. will be sentenced this spring.
+ Just do it… profitability.
Nike (+0.2% // -0.5% after hours) just blew analysts’ nips off with a yuge earnings beat on the top and bottom lines after hours. New CEO Elliott Hill has only been the top Shoe Dog for two months, but already appears to be making Roger Federer wish he never invested in On.
So far, Elliott has managed to maintain Nike’s stranglehold on professional sports leagues by renewing contracts with the NFL, MLB, and NBA. And the new regime has been cutting back the supply of oversaturated sneakers, offering steep discounts that have rekt major wholesalers (sup, Footlocker)… and, presumably, paying its child laborers even less.
Frozen french fry producer Lamb Weston (-20.1%) is having a brutal week. First, Post went and bought one of its competitors. Then, yesterday, it reported a surprise quarterly loss and slashed its ‘25 sales outlook.
Just how bad was it? Bad enough that CEO Thomas Werner went all “seems like a you problem,” and stepped down from his executive role and left the Board. Next up? Michael Smith, the current COO.
+ The Middle Class remains undefeated.
Darden Restaurants (+14.7%), the parent company of Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse, reported an earnings beat and proved once again that no one out-pastas the Garden. Never-ending soup, salad, and breadsticks were clearly on the menu this quarter. Sales crushed the Street’s expectations.
Darden specifically highlighted the middle-classes insatiable appetite for more garlic breadsticks and frozen lasagna. The establishment has seen increased frequency in customers with incomes between $50k-$100k.
+ What the top 75 college sports programs are worth. I’ve got some bad news, Hustler’s University alumnus…
+ WTF is wrong with boomers? Friendly reminder: you cannot take it with you…
🔥 This airline is offering ‘budget-savvy’ travelers an ‘all you can fly’ pass for just $299: Here’s what to know. I’d rather take a Greyhound than fly Frontier…
FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.
⏪ Yesterday, Accenture, Cintas, and Darden Restaurants dropped earnings before the bell. And Nike and FedEx reported after the close.
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Not much going on… enjoy the second-quietest Friday of 2024 (spoiler: next Friday will be even less eventful)
Yesterday, I asked, “Do you waste PTO on the days between Christmas and New Year's? Or do you just move your mouse around and "work" from home?”
55.7% of you said "just work." I couldn't agree more. There are few better feelings than drinking on company time.
And here’s today’s question…
One last holiday hypothetical…
Would you rather: get $100k EVERY year, but you have to spend Christmas Eve & Day alone OR have the perfect, idyllic Christmas of your dreams with your loved ones but you don't get any money?
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.