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Hey there weekday warriors,
So, I’m pretty sure we almost had fisticuffs at the last Fed meeting.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 23 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
+ US stocks “rose for a second session Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at records, as technology stocks powered higher and investors shook off geopolitical concerns.” (CNBC)
+ The 10-year Treasury yield “ticked higher on Wednesday as investors digested meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve and geared up for inflation data.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “fell on Wednesday after U.S. data showed rising crude inventories, but losses were limited by the risk of Iranian supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and Hurricane Milton in the U.S.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “moved little on Wednesday, steadying after recent losses as traders hunkered down before more cues on U.S. interest rates from the Federal Reserve and inflation data.” (Investing)
+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia -0.1% 2) Tesla -1.4% 3) Palantir +4.0%
The market moves you need to know about…
– Sure, you’ve made bad investments. But you’ll never make an investment as bad as Bayer, which bought Monsanto in 2018.
ICYMI Bayer inherited all the lawsuits related to Monsanto’s cancer-causing weed killer. And yesterday the Washington Supreme Court (side note: do you think the Washington Supreme Court justices correct people when they assume it is THE Supreme Court, or do they just let it slide?) said it was reviewing a case that had let Bayer off the hook for a $185M payout related to Monsanto products doing what they do best (think: killing people). Shares dropped 6.7% on the day.
+ Weight Watchers has had some fat gainz over the past two days. Shares have more than doubled. On Tuesday WW announced that it would start slinging compounded semaglutide. Then, yesterday, Morgan Stanley gave the move its stamp of approval. Shares mooned (another) 37.9% Wednesday.
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Remember that time I sold my soul to big media (friendly reminder: I sold TWC to Barstool Sports before going independent again)? Well, showing sponsors some love would ensure I never have to do that again. You know what to do (spoiler: click and check out their offer) 🤝
Real Housewives of Jackson Hole
We already knew Michelle Bowman wasn’t getting invited to Dead & Co. at the Sphere with J-Poww ever again. But it looks like some other Fed governors aren’t getting a Christmas card from the Powells either…
You might recall that last month Bowman was the first FOMC member to dissent on a rate vote since the year of our lord 2005. But it appears that some other Fed Governors were sipping the Haterade too…
Yesterday the Fed released the minutes from its September meeting, and there was more drama than a custody battle that ends with the kids in foster care…
According to the minutes, “Some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.”
Translation? Things were said that can’t be unsaid. Like… “You’re a f*cking idiot for wanting to cut by 50 basis points. Oh, and your mom is a common street wh*re.”
The “substantial majority” pushing for the 50 basis point cut got its way, of course.
“Told you so!”
Fast forward a few weeks and Team 25 is looking like they were onto something. Both inflation and jobs data have been pointing towards a soft landing.
Between the major pressure to not go nuclear in September and the recent economic data, it’s probably safe to assume we won’t see another 50 basis point cut this year. To be fair, we haven’t seen a ton of 50 basis point moves, period. Let alone two in a row.
Markets are actually pricing in ~20% chance that the Fed won’t cut at all in November. And by the time you’re reading this, those odds may have spiked. Consumer price index data drops this AM…
+ Grown-a** men with Roblox accounts have a new favorite stock…
KinderCare, which runs childcare centers for more than 200k kiddos across the US made its public debut yesterday. And it’s probably not a surprise to anyone with children in daycare just how well the IPO was received.
KLC opened at $27 per share after pricing at $24. It closed at $26.13.
Turns out that keeping an eye on our snot-nosed little blessings is big business. Especially with return-to-office mandates ruining everyone’s sourdough side hustles. Not to mention the number of women in the workforce continues to grow.
Did I mention that in the US, daycare on average costs $321… per week?
+ “Wasn’t me” - Shaggy and Peter Todd
This week HBO dropped ‘Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,’ a documentary that promised to reveal Satoshi Nakamoto’s (spoiler: the person or group that invented Bitcoin) real identity. According to the feature that could have just been a TikTok, software developer Peter Todd is guilty as charged.
Obviously, Peter denied the claims… which is exactly what an elusive trillionaire who has been trying to shield his identity would do.
In the filmmaker’s defense, you can’t trust a guy with two first names…
+ “Ok, hear me out… a taxi, but hardly any room for people…” - Elon Musk, apparently
We’re just a few hours away from Tesla’s (+1.4%) ‘We, Robot’ event where Tesla will unveil its Cybercab.
But since nothing is sacred anymore, Bloomberg already spoiled the robotaxi fo us. Apparently, it will have just two seats. And butterfly-wing doors. Oh, so it’s the DeLorean?
Sources also told Bloomberg that Elon would also roll out full self-driving for its Semi… and what’s the worst that could happen?
You can watch the event at 10 PM EST tonight. It will be live-streamed on X. Duh.
+ Rio Tinto (-4.2%) (yes, the company that isn’t afraid to bulldoze Aboriginal heritage sites to get its hands on some ore), the world’s second-largest miner, just overpaid for acquired lithium producer Arcadium (+30.9%). RT paid $6.7B, a 90% premium to when the two first started chatting.
+ Use these 2 words to help successfully negotiate your next raise. “F*ckyou payme”
+ Life spans are growing but ‘health spans’ are shrinking. What that means for your money. I, for one, am looking forward to 20+ years of soiling my Depends and yelling at kids to get off my lawn.
+ The Power Of Introverts: Lessons From Successful Business Owners. Rule #1: Always force yourself into uncomfortable situations that give you crippling anxiety.
🔥 You’re not upper class in America until you’ve reached this coveted status. “Owner of a Chrysler Sebring convertible.”
You asked for more real estate content. Who am I to say no?
+ A staggering amount of homeowners would hire a ‘questionable’ contractor to save money, report finds. Same, tbh.
+ Which candidate do Americans think has better housing policies? Did not see that coming…
🔥 5 Housing Markets That Will Plummet in Value Before the End of 2025. Don’t go down with the ship.
FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.
⏪ Yesterday, we got the Fed minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ This morning we’ll get earnings reports from Delta, Tilray, and Domino’s. Probably not a coincidence that Tilray and Domino’s report on the same day…
+ Hewlett Packard Enterprise hosts an AI day
+ Advanced Micro Devices holds its Advancing AI 2024 event
+ September Consumer Price Index data drops
+ Tesla holds its robotaxi event. Prepare to be underwhelmed…
+ Hurricane Milton is currently wreaking havoc in FL. Stay safe Florida man and woman.
Yesterday, I asked, “You're locked in a room with 20 complete strangers from all walks of life. You have to divulge either your financials (how much you make etc.) or your political views. Which are you talking about?”
52.7% of you would rather talk politics.
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)…
Politics: "It's the one thing about being a libertarian....it makes so much sense that nobody could possibly argue with it. I don't understand why there are not more of us."
Money: "Money all day. If you discuss politics with someone with differing viewpoints, you might get killed."
Money: "I can always learn from others when discussing money. Discussing politics with most people results in something like hairpulling pickleball fight in California...look it up."
Politics: "I'm talking politics. Are weapons allowed? I might need it."
Money: "I make enough to not be embarrassed, but don’t make enough to piss off the tax the rich crowd. You can’t say anything in regards to politics without torches and pitchforks being lit one way or another."
And here’s today’s questions…
Lots of drama between pickleballers (sorry, but you don’t get official recognition as athletes) and tennis players. So…
Team Pickleball or Team Tennis?
Oh, and one more thing…
Did you check out today's sponsor REX Share?
And…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.