Hey there weekday warriors,
Have no fear. The great recession of 2024 can’t hurt you anymore.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 14 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
+ US stocks’ “The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended 1% higher on Tuesday as investors jumped back into the market a day after a dramatic sell-off, with recent comments by Federal Reserve officials easing U.S. recession worries.” (Reuters)
+ The 10-year Treasury yield “bounced back on Tuesday as investors closely monitored a reversal of the previous day’s global market sell-off.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “settled higher on Tuesday, bouncing off multi-month lows hit in the previous session, as investor attention turned to supply tightness and financial markets recovered from their recent slump.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “regained $56,000 during the Asian morning amid a broader recovery following Monday's rout.“ (CoinDesk)
+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia +3.7% 2) Supermicro +1.3% // -12.4% after hours 3) Lumen +93.0% // +34.2% after hours
The market moves you need to know about…
+ The maker of Tylenol, Band-Aid, Listerine, and pretty much everything else you can get over the counter at CVS reported better-than-expected earnings thanks in part to a worse-than-expected allergy szn. Shares of Kenvue rocketed 14.6% on the day.
– Shares of Supermicro Computer took their lumps on Tuesday, despite copying the big tech playbook (think: a 10-for-1 stock split). SMCI reported a bottom-line miss and shared a disappointing earnings outlook for the current quarter. Shares fell 13.2% after hours.
+ Never underestimate American’s willingness to overpay for the slightest of conveniences. Instacart jumped 8.0% after hours following an earnings beat and some rosy guidance.
And now back to our regularly scheduled programming…
Source: Giphy
Live look at me telling my grandkids about how I survived the great recession of 2024…
Annnd it’s gone. All the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that had the CNBC intern putting the ‘Markets in Turmoil’ graphic in heavy rotation on Monday seemingly evaporated overnight…
Just a day after Japan’s Nikkei index had its worst day since 1987 (-12.4%), it had its best day since 2008 (+10.8%). Probably nothing…
US stonks rose as well. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 jumped more than 1%, led by, you guessed it, big tech. Because we live by the AI trade and we did by the AI trade, you guys.
Why the sudden change of heart?
Welp, there were likely a few factors at play that helped stop the bleeding… none of which were Japan actually having its sh*t together.
First off, the reality started to set in that the Fed is likely to cut more aggressively than Amazon eliminating piss breaks at its distribution centers following a bad quarter. The market is now pricing in 50 bips (or “basis points” if you pronounce it fi-nance instead of fuh-nance) in September. And it’ll only get more aggressive from there.
Some of the smart money also reassured us that we’ll likely avoid a recession and that the Fed has plenty of room to work with (think: it can cut with reckless abandon given rates are between 5.25% and 5.50%).
It probably also helped that the bottom feeders amongst us were more than happy to take advantage of the everything must-go sale and buy the f*cking dip.
Next stop: (probably) more volatility.
+ Turns out US travelers are sick and tired of paying more for accommodations that come with free K-Cups… and the opportunity to be recorded in the shower without their consent…
Airbnb (+4.1% // -16.6% after hours) got rekt after reporting a quarter that fell into the “mediocre at best” category. The platform that allows you to rent a room from a guy who’d really like to wear your skin as a jacket missed on the bottom line (but managed to beat on the top line).
That was the good news. The bad news? It’s “seeing shorter booking lead times globally and some signs of slowing demand from U.S. guests.” Translation? Things are about to get worse…
+ Reddit (-4.5% // -4.2% after hours) is the Uncle Rico of social media platforms. While every other platform grew up and started turning a profit (yes, even Snap), Reddit is 20 years old and still posting losses…
The glorified chat room just reported for the second time as a publicly traded company. And it actually went pretty well. The company narrowed its losses to just $10M in the quarter and beat on the bottom line in a big way.
Online advertising (read: how it makes money) mooned 41% in the quarter and “other revenue” (read: selling user-generated content to AI companies to train their large language models and not compensating Redditors or mods) soared almost 700%… mostly because that revenue stream didn’t actually exist until a few months ago.
Still, shares fell after hours.
+ What AI bubble?
Lumen (+93.0% // +34.2%) might be a late bloomer, but it’s out here getting its Nvidia on. Shares of the fiber network provider jumped 93% on Tuesday, bringing its monthly gainz to nearly 400%. *The SEC has entered the chat*
So, what’s behind the Suprermicro-esque rip? Lumen’s got more AI biz than it knows what to do with. According to a video from its CEO, the company has $5B in new business related to AI connectivity… and $7B in the pipeline.
Oh, and…
+ Taco Bell could hold the secret formula for bringing customers back to fast food. You can feed a family of 4 for $13.97.
+ Pitbull Is In Agreement With FIU To Name Their Football Stadium "Pitbull Stadium." Imagine being 15 Natty Lights deep listening to ‘Fireball’ performed live by Mr. Worldwide at Pitbull Stadium…
+ Disney raises streaming prices for Hulu, Disney+ and ESPN+. Life hack: ask your parents for their password.
+ Now is the time to ‘buy things on sale’ in the stock market, advisor says. Here’s what to know. BTFD.
+ Credit card expert top pick: This unlimited cash back card offers a 5% cash back perk that gets matched after your first year. You’re welcome.
+ Scott Galloway reveals the two simple lifestyle changes younger Americans should make to get rich quick. #2: Make your coffee at home.
🔥 Everyone is talking about the Sahm recession indicator. Here’s what you need to know. Claudia Sahm is more popular than the Hawk Tuah girl right now. Change my mind.
🔥 Put your savings into a high-yield account before it’s too late. Spoiler: rate cuts are inbound.
FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.
⏪ Yesterday, CAT, Uber, Molson Coors, Celsius, and FuboTV reported before the bell. Amgen, Airbnb, Fortinet, Supermicro, Rivian, Toast, Redfin, and The RealReal reported after hours.
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Novo Nordisk, Disney, Sony, CVS Health, Shopify, Hilton, New York Times, Icahn Enterprises, Lyft, and Aurora Cannabis report in the morning
+ McKesson, Monster, Occidental, HUBSPOT, Warner Bros. Discovery, Robinhood, Zillow, Duolingo, Joby Aviation, Dutch Bros., Oddity, Sonos, Beyond Meat, and Virgin Galactic drop earnings after the bell
Yesterday, I asked, “If you had to keep one Kellanova product and kill all the others, what would it be?”
Cheez-It won with 40.2% of the vote. Pop-Tarts came in second.
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)…
Eggo: "Cinnamon Toaster Sticks are the best frozen breakfast money can buy"
Rice Krispies Treats: "I'd let it do horrible horrific unspeakable things to me”
Pringles: "I can throat these down like there's no tomorrow..."
Cheez-It: "I used to freebase Cheez-Its back in college. Eating them now in adulthood brings me back to the days of Natty Light and unprotected sex."
Club Crackers: "Because I'm a grown-up" Absolutely the classiest cracker in the game. Ritz are for pikers.
Pop-Tarts: "If I had a variety, I could live on Pop-Tarts. If I'm in a rush and don't have time for the toaster, I don't even mind eating them 'raw'." Men will literally raw dog anything.
Club Crackers: "Serving size = one sleeve"
Also, now people are fighting in the comments (… that only I can see): "The guy who wrote in yesterday telling us about Black Bear Diner is easily in his 60s. If this ranks as the best chain, god help us. It's cleaner and less chaotic, sure. The food is less imagined; thus, it misses the filth and chaos that IHOP or the other offers to distract you from it." I am here for this.
Here’s today’s question…
Apparently, only Taco Bell can save us, so…
You can only have ONE Taco Bell item for the rest of your life. All others must go. Which is it?
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.