Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on tap today… UAE is so over OPEC’s BS, OpenAI being useless singlehandedly brought down tech today, and Starbucks has big turnaround energy.
Enjoy the next 3 minutes and 15 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
NOPEC
UAE let the intrusive thoughts win…
Yesterday, the United Arab Emirates went all “it’s not you, it’s me” and surprise yeeted themselves out of OPEC, effective May 1.
Turns out, the big brains wallets in Abu Dhabi weren’t a fan of the drone strikes damaging their oil infrastructure sent by their fellow OPEC-ies in Iran… which, fair.
In case it’s not obvious why that’s a BFD…
The UAE’s been a part of OPEC since 1967. And they’re the third-largest oil producer in the cartel, just behind neighbors Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
This is the oil equivalent of Harry Styles leaving One Direction.
So why the exit now?
Well, this whole Hormuz Strait situation and the drone strikes certainly aren’t helping, but the Emirites have been jonesing to drop a solo album for a while…
Dropping out of the boy band at this moment was an intentional decision meant to have the least disruptive effect on oil markets, because, well, things are already currently f*cked.
*cue UAE oil bulking szn*
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+ Hitting goals? What is that? That’s ghetto.
OpenAI dragged down tech today (think: Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 4.05% ) and SoftBank $SFTBY ( ▼ 12.11% ) both tanked) after a new report from the WSJ showed just how challenging things are at the moment for Scam Altman…
Turns out, ChatGPT has missed a few major milestones (spoiler: 1B weekly active users, yearly revenue, monthly revenue, and subscriber defection rates). Friendly reminder that CFO Sarah Friar literally just raised $122B for compute power that will be burned through in *checks notes* just 3 years.
And SammyGPT has committed the company to another $600B in future data center spend… so some revenue might be good at some point…
+ Big Venti turnaround
Starbucks $SBUX ( ▼ 0.62% ) dropped a yuge earnings win yesterday. Top and bottom line estimates got rekt by actuals, with net sales jumping 9% this quarter and same-store sales up 6.2% (suck it, Domino’s).
Burrito Brian’s turnaround is clearly in full swing… so much so that B. Nic projected an increase of at least 5% in same-store sales in 2026. Shares obviously jumped after hours on the news.
+ Sundar Pichai: *does literally anything*
Google employees:
Turns out the Pentagon is still down to do dirty business with big AI, and Gemini is next on the hit list. Google $GOOG ( ▼ 0.29% ) just inked a deal with the Penty to allow Big Brother use of its AI on “classified systems” for “any lawful government purpose.”
And of course (because it’s Google), the employees are already being baby back b*tches.
Over 600 Google employees wrote a resignation strongly worded letter to CEO Sundar Pichai about Google making the Pentagon its sneaky link.
Meanwhile, 30k ex-Oracle employees are still funemployed…
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> Airbus reports falling profits as jet deliveries slow (CNBC) // Boeing is back.
> Elon Musk slams OpenAI rival ahead of landmark trial in California: ‘Scam Altman’ (NY Post) // I’m not sure if this is even a real trial or just an IRL X feud…
> Cancer Drug Developer Erasca Sinks by Record 55% After Patient Death (Bloomberg) // Pharma stonks are brutal.
> The man simply did not miss…
Yesterday, I asked, “Are you a perpetrator/victim of lifestyle creep?”
51.5% of you said, “Kind of, but I try to keep my spending much lower than my income still.” Same, bro… same.
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my response in italics)…
Definitely, when I make more, I spend more: “It’s the American Way.” We’re unmatched at it.
Definitely, when I make more, I spend more: “Isn't that the point? ‘First, we get the jobs, then we get the khakis, then we get the chicks.’” Sick reference, bro.
Kind of, but I try to keep my spending much lower than my income still: “I make the wife go in the other room when talking to my financial advisor so she doesn't realize what we are saving for retirement.” This guy wifes.
No way, I still saved money like I was poor even as my income grew: “And still in the financial racket at almost 70.” Nice, I hear you actually CAN take it with you.
Definitely, when I make more, I spend more: “Well, it's more called "multiple child creep." As I make more, my wife decides we can afford another kid.” Two words: snip, snip.
Here’s today’s question(s)…
What are we thinking about Starbucks these days? (generally speaking)
+ US stocks “closed lower on Tuesday, backing away from record closing highs as renewed concerns over the artificial intelligence boom weighed on technology stocks days before five of the sector's most high-profile companies were due to post quarterly results.” (Reuters)
+ The 10-year yield “rose on Tuesday as investors awaited developments on negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which hit an impasse over the weekend.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “closed up nearly 3% on Tuesday as persistent worries about supply constraints from the closed Strait of Hormuz outweighed concerns about the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group.” (Investing.com)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks that there’s a 50% chance that James Comey gets sentenced to prison this year. (Polymarket)
⏪ Yesterday…
+ Spotify, Coca-Cola, UPS, S&P Global, Corning, General Motors, BP, Galaxy Digital, American Tower, Sherwin-Williams, Enterprise Products, Hilton, Centene, JetBlue, Kimberly-Clark, Ecolab, Ares Capital Corporation, Novartis, Sysco, Opera, Incyte, and Franklin Resources reported before the bell
+ Visa, Robinhood, Starbucks, Waste Management, Seagate, Bloom Energy, T-Mobile, Booking Holdings, Enphase Energy, Teradyne, Fair Isaac, NXP, Mondelez, ONEOK, Welltower, F5 Networks, Stride, STAG Industrial, W. P. Carey, and CoStar dropped earnings after hours
+ Resorts World was expected to open the first-ever casino with live table games in New York City
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ SoFi Technologies, AbbVie, Lemonade, Amphenol, Automatic Data Processing, Etsy, GE HealthCare, Garmin, Fiverr, General Dynamics, Humana, Wingstop, AstraZeneca, UBS, GlaxoSmithKline, Phillips 66, TotalEnergies, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Canadian National Railway, EMCOR Group, Brinker International, Generac, Old Dominion Freight Line, Banco Santander, Stanley Black & Decker, Biogen, Yum! Brands, and Carpenter Technology report before the bell
+ Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Qualcomm, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Carvana, Ford Motor Company, KLA Corporation, VICI Properties, eBay, Viking Therapeutics, The Cheesecake Factory, Sprouts Farmers Market, PROCEPT BioRobotics, Equinix, Teladoc Health, O'Reilly Automotive, Viavi Solutions, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Aflac, Vista Energy, TTM Technologies, Kinross Gold, FTAI Aviation, Allstate, MGM Resorts, Align Technology, and FormFactor report after the bell
+ Uber will hold its annual product showcase in New York City (which I presume is just someone using Uber Eats to order a $37 slop bowl)
+ Coca-Cola will hold its annual meeting
+ The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and J-Poww will hold a press conference
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.
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