TOGETHER WITH
Hey there weekday warriors,
Here’s what’s on tap today… oil bulls are saying “told ya so,” jobs data is bleak af, and BlackRock pumps the brakes on redemptions.
Enjoy the next 3 minutes and 9 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
Keep it 100
“bRo, wE ShOUlD hAvE BouGHt OiL at neGaTiVe $37 iN aPrIL 2020.” - everyone with ‘Kalshi trader’ in their bio who doesn’t realize they would have needed to store thousands of barrels of oil for nearly 6 years
It’s a tale as old as time: sh*t hits the fan in the Middle East… oil prices moon.
But this time it’s different. And I mean that in the worst way possible. The ongoing Operation Desert Sh*tstorm in Iran (and the Middle East more broadly) sent US crude (the West Texas variety) futures up 35% last week.
For those of you keeping score at home, that’s the biggest weekly gain since 1983… but only because that’s when we started keeping track. Brent (WTI’s British cousin with worse oral hygiene) popped 28% over the same time period. That’s its worst week since the year of our lord 2020.
A huge chunk of the girthy gainz came on Friday after POTUS called for unconditional surrender by whoever the hell is actually running Iran (imagine a worse job). Translation? This thing isn’t going to be over any time soon… which means disruptions to the region’s oil production are just getting started.
Donny Destruction’s promise to insure oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz did little to quell the price jump, mostly because sailors and shipping companies have already gone all f*ck that noise.
WTI hit $90 per barrel.
Next stop?
$100 oil. Which should happen this week today. How can I be so sure? Because in Asian trading, liquid gold is already changing hands for more than $100 per barrel.
Meanwhile, Qatar’s energy minister thinks we could see $150 oil in the coming weeks.
Wipe that sh*t eating grin off your faces, EV owners…
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+ “Things certainly can’t get any worse…” - investors monitoring the situation abroad
“Hold my beer.” - The Bureau of Labor Statistics
According to the Department of Labor’s official stats, the US lost 92k jobs in February ‘26. The worst part (well, besides all those people who can’t afford their kids’ medicine)? Economists were expecting the US economy to add 50k jobs in the month. Oh, and the US added 126k jobs in January…
Maybe we should have kept the government shut down after all?
The good news is that the BLS’s data is about as accurate as a DCF model built by one of these Temu Claviculars…
+ BlackRock $BLK ( ▲ 0.13% ) out here getting its Vlad Tenev on…
Except instead of not letting your sorry a** buy more GME with stimmy checks in 2021, BlackRock isn’t letting billionaires GTFO out of their private credit fund.
The asset manager decided to cap withdrawals from its $26B HPS Corporate Lending Fund. Instead of letting fat cats redeem 9.3% of their shares, they’re going all “best I can do is 5%.” Spoiler: it’s a major red flag when funds do this.
In case you’ve been living under a rock, private credit has taken a beating as of late after some high-profile blow-ups linked to some less-than-diligent lending. It also doesn’t help that the $2.8T industry has a ton of exposure to software companies (you know, the kind of companies that won’t exist next quarter thanks to AI).
+ The enemy of my enemy is my friend…
Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 0.16% ) appears to be completely throwing in the towel in its longtime beef with Hims & Hers Health $HIMS ( ▲ 3.9% ). Friendly reminder, NVO was pretty, pretty recently suing Hims (think: literally last month) for ripping off its Wegovy pill with a knockoff.
Now, apparently, the hatchet has been fully buried, and Novo will be selling its drugs on Hims’ platform. One app to rule them all, and in the darkness end obesity. Hims shares mooned after hours (which, duh).
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> Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent, EchoStar set to join S&P 500 (Reuters) // Everyone who has been on a bad Hinge date can rest easy knowing Match Group got booted…
> Palantir rallies 15% for the week as Iran war boosts prospects, muting Anthropic concern (CNBC) // Nature is healing.
> Polymarket Founder Says War Bets Are Facing Growing Resistance (Bloomberg) // No one saw this coming.
> But did you claim your capital losses on your tax return tho?
On Friday, I asked, “Where do you fall on the credit card spectrum?”
50.9% of you said, “Pay a high annual fee for a card, use a bunch of the benefits, and/or you have a bunch of cards.” Ah, so you guys are the ones causing all this national credit card debt.
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my response in italics)…
Don’t use any cards. Cash only. Probably have gold buried in your yard: “I have Nvidia chips buried in my backyard.” Jesus Christ, it’s Jensen Bourne.
Pay a high annual fee for a card, use a bunch of the benefits, and/or you have a bunch of cards: “Airline and hotel card. Haven’t paid for a kids lacrosse trip in years. And I’m pretty sure the lounge is losing money from my degenerate ass.” Lacrosse parent identified.
Pay a high annual fee for a card, use a bunch of the benefits, and/or you have a bunch of cards: “Finding ways to gather and manipulate points directly correlates to my childhood NES days... LFG.”
Don’t use any cards. Cash only. Probably have gold buried in your yard: “No gold, unfortunately, but if I can't pay straight cash for it, I don't buy it. The meek shall inherit the Earth or what's left of it.” Imagine leaving all those points on the table…
Use a debit card (the chaotic neutral of cards): “Who the fuck pays for a credit card? Would you send me names so I can start grifting these MFers? You should start a newsletter for these people, Tyler. You can highlight the best scams and grifts so they can join in on getting scammed and grifted.” Deal.
Here’s today’s question(s)…
First, check out this chart:
A (not so) hypothetical situation: AI replaces your job. You have to pivot to one of these "safe" industries. Where you going? (And what's the job?)
+ US stocks “closed down on Friday amid a sudden setback in the U.S. labor market and a 12% spike in U.S. oil prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.” (Reuters)
+ The 10-year yield “slipped on Friday, though its loss was contained as investors assessed the likely inflation impact resulting from higher crude oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “soared on Friday, with Brent climbing above $90/bbl and posting its best weekly gain since April 2020, as sentiment was hammered by weak U.S. labor market data and the escalating conflict in the Middle East.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “retreated on Friday, falling below the key $70,000 level as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drove oil prices higher and clouded the outlook for global inflation and interest rates.” (Investing.com)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks that there’s a 7% chance McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski is fired by June 30… for taking little bites. (Polymarket)
⏪ On Friday…
+ The January Retail Sales report dropped
+ The February jobs report was released
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ ZIM Integrated Shipping, Sharplink Gaming, Unusual Machines, and FuelCell Energy report before the opening bell
+ Hewlett Packard and Casey's report after hours
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.
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