Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on tap today… it’s Christmas morning for retail investors, DJT is making promises about this whole Iran War thing (again), and inflation is getting its 2022 on.
Now, enjoy the next 3 minutes and 47 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
PS… thanks in advance for doing your part in helping keep TWC like the Fed (think: free and independent) by checking out today’s advertising partner.
PPS… since I know you’re reading this (and you’re about to click on the ad), happy birthday, mom.
Happy SPCX IPO day to those who celebrate
Oh my God! Okay, it’s happening. Everyone, stay calm! STAY F*CKING CALM.
Don’t freak out, but by the time you’re reading this, SpaceX might be a publicly traded company.
You see, SPCX begins trading today, in what will be the biggest IPO of all time… and it won’t be particularly close.
Elon’s space/AI/social media company (just had to look up if Neuralink and the Boring Company are part of Elon’s HoldCo… they aren’t) plans to raise $75B at a $1.77T valuation. That sound you hear is Saudi Aramco being c*cked bigly.
But don’t expect to get any shares at the IPO price. Elon and the big swingin investment bankers peddling SpaceX stonk have slashed retail’s allocation to ~20%… from 30%. Fear not, I’m sure institutional investors would love to make a bag holder out of you and me after shares triple…
Oh, and probably nothing, but…
Elon is set to become the world’s first trillionaire. Some quick math: his stake in SpaceX is worth ~$866B, and his Tesla shares are valued at ~$320B. Sucks to suck, Adam Neumann.
And good news for the “eat the rich” crowd… it’s about to be an all-you-can-eat buffet in Austin and California. The IPO is expected to mint thousands of millionaires and a handful of billionaires.
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+ Gotta hand it to the bulls… they’re always ready to be hurt again…
Yesterday, #47 gave us the news we’ve heard 1000x all been waiting for.
And markets immediately went all, “good ‘nuff.”
Per Donny the Dove, the US has penciled in a deal with the big brains in Tehran to end the war, subject only to the “finalization of documents,” which, does POTUS not have DocuSign?
Friendly reminder, as recently as Tuesday, US forces were yeeting missiles at Iran in retaliation for the downing of a US aircraft patrolling over the Strait.
Guess those strikes were effective, given Donny Artillery’s announcement yesterday that he’d be canceling a planned round of more strikes scheduled for last night.
Probably for the best so JD can lock in on his weight cut before UFC Freedom 250 weigh-ins.
Anyway, DJT’s announcement was enough to make traders go from six-to-midnight yesterday.
Stonks jumped bigly, and oil prices tanked on the day.
+ New high score.
Inflation jumped to over 4% in May, and if you’re thinking “holy sh*t”… you’re right.
CPI rose 0.5% in May, locking in an impressive 4.2% year-over-year gain. That’s up from April’s already-batsh*t 3.8%. And it marks the first time inflation’s been above 4% in three years.
Meanwhile, the core-variant of CPI jumped only 0.2% for the month, up 2.9% from last year, meaning, yes, it’s literally all energy’s fault.
Just to round (horrible) things out, we got May’s PPI report yesterday, and it’s not great either, Bob. Wholesale inflation mooned 1.1% in May (spoiler: 6.5% over the last year). That’s the fastest rate increase since the year of our Lord 2022.
+ Shortacle
ICYMI, Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 8.53% ) served up a top and bottom-line earnings beat late Wednesday, then proceeded to announce an additional $40B raise this year (50/50 debt/equity and share sale). Read: they just copied Google’s homework.
Shares (understandably) tanked 8.5% yesterday.
Friendly reminder: Larry’s raising capital like a Web3 NFT project during the ZIRP era. How much exactly? $43B in debt year to date, which has, so far, resulted in… $23.7B in negative free cash flow…
“Gotta spend money to make money.” - Larry, I assume
+ Jeffrey Commerce’s AI play Prometheus just locked in a yuge valuation (think: $41B) in its latest funding round
Friendly reminder: the company named after the sequel to the Alien movies (or something like that) builds AI tools for engineering complex products like jet engines and medical devices. So the next AI IPO that crashes Bitcoin…
> Amazon Says Its Data Centers Use 2.5 Billion Gallons of Water // *orders post-apocalypse survival kit on Prime*
> DoorDash’s new AI chatbot lets you order with prompts and photos // Every day we stray further from God and closer to Idiocracy…
> Cracker Barrel shares surge 23% on upbeat sales forecast as logo controversy fades // The American spirit simply cannot be crushed.
> Coinbase launches tool to let AI agents manage trading and payments // What could possibly go wrong?
> OpenAI to acquire Ona to support its AI coding assistant, Codex // If you can’t beat them, buy them.
> (Wednesday) Xbox Plans Significant Layoffs as New CEO Plans Overhaul // More like Call Off-Duty.
> (Wednesday) Amazon trucking expansion sparks freight stock sell-off // A f*ckload more (market share).
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On Tuesday, I asked, “Should Donny Clemency actually pardon SBF or nah?”
92.3% of you said, “No, lock him up.” You guys, we’ve never been so in agreement on anything…
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my response in italics)…
No, lock him up: “Should be locked up for that intentionally bad haircut alone.” If that’s a crime, you’re cooked.
No, lock him up: “Don't let him out until bitcoin hits one trillion $$$.” Got bad news for you…
Other (write-in): “Give him the option stay 25 yrs in white collar resort prison or 1 yr pound him in the a$$ prison… office space style.” Did this guy just fix the justice system?
No, lock him up: “He may be handsome, but he's a horrible criminal. Keep him trapped.” We talking about the same SBF?
Other (write-in): “The presidential pardon is one of the most grotesque parts of the US government, and should be abolished.” Until you’re asking for one…
Here’s today’s question(s)…
Windfall incoming for some OG SpaceX employees…
What's your first FUN purchase with a new-money windfall? (And you better write me with the details.)
Hey bud, do you know anyone who might be interested in advertising with The Water Coolest?
Just hit ‘reply’ to talk to us about what it’d be like to get your company some love from the greatest group of all time (spoiler: the TWC audience).
+ US stocks mostly fell Tuesday (S&P 500: -0.3%) and Wednesday (S&P 500: -1.6%) but mooned Thursday (S&P 500: +1.8%) after it looked like Iran might be over (again). A girl can dream…
🔴 Chewy Cuts Outlook // Neutered.
+ The 10-year yield fell on Tuesday, steadied Wednesday, and fell again Thursday as Iran situation started trending positive.
+ Oil prices fell on Tuesday then rose on Wednesday before falling like a stone Thursday now that we’re almost all done (for real this time) in Iran.
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks that there’s an 81% chance the Knicks get it done (could be a good time to make some money, Spurs fans, if you truly believe…). (Polymarket)
Oh, and one more thing…
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