Don’t freak out, but… there is a major beef cattle shortage in the US. The beef cattle inventory has fallen to its lowest point since the 70’s. *Ron Swanson dies a little bit inside*

Here’s what else we’re getting into today…

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 12 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

- tyler

+ US stocks “ended mixed on Monday after the S&P 500 index notched a historic close in the prior session, as investors prepared for the first key inflation update of the year and the next wave of earnings reports.” (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield was “slightly lower Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data and fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about the interest rate outlook." (CNBC)

+ Oil prices “settled little changed on Monday as concerns about interest rates and global demand caused the market to take a break after prices jumped about 6% last week on worries Middle East tensions could cause supply problems.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin mooned (see below).

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia +0.1% 2) Arm +29.3% 3) Super Micro Computer +4.4%

The market moves you need to know about…

+ Psychedelic pharma company Mind Medicine jumped 8.1% on news that the FDA had given priority review status to MDMA for use in treating PTSD. What a time to be alive.

– Big Lots: great ticker (BIG), terrible company. Swirling rumors about an imminent bankruptcy sent shares of the brick-and-mortar retailer down 27.9% yesterday.

+ You’re not going to believe this, but… Marathon Digital was up 14.1% thanks to bitcoin rising above $50k.

Bah gawd, that’s Carl Icahn’s music.

Activist investor Carl Icahn just went all “I can fix him” to Jet Blue investors. Icahn Enterprises built a roughly 10% stake in Jet Blue (+16.3% after hours) over the past two months.

The 87-year-old (we don’t talk enough about age limits on activist investors) said he believes the stock is undervalued. Which means he plans to do what he does best: extract shareholder value by any means necessary. Think: layoffs and other cost-cutting measures.

According to the filing, he’s going full Nelson Peltz and seeking a board seat or two.

Track record

This isn’t Carl’s first rodeo with airlines. In the late 80s, he took TWA private as part of a leveraged buyout.

“So it went well, right? Right?” - JetBlue shareholders

Not exactly. The airline filed for bankruptcy a few years later… then again a few years after that.

Turbulence

It’s been a busy few weeks for Jet Blue. Its dreams of becoming a major carrier via the acquisition of Spirit were dashed by Uncle Sam. The DOJ sued to block the deal. It’s currently being reviewed, but the prognosis is not looking good…

On top of all that, a new CEO took over… yesterday. No amount of money is worth the sh*tshow she just inherited.

Why should I care? JetBlue is down horrendous. And not just because of the Spirit deal. JBLU hasn’t turned a profit since 2019, before the pandemic. And analysts aren’t expecting it to break even until next year at the earliest. Meanwhile, all the major players have returned to profitability. That’s probably why JetBlue is down 29% in the past year… while Delta is up 5%.

+ The salary negotiation trick that works ‘time and time again,’ according to an ex-Goldman Sachs recruiter (Read)

+ Jeff Bezos will save over $600 million in taxes by moving to Miami (Read)

~ ICYMI... The most expensive home for sale in the U.S. goes up for $295 million in Naples, Florida (Read)

+ Me in mid-2021: “With meme stonk madness dying down, we certainly won’t hear from Build-A-Bear again…”

Build-A-Bear yesterday: “Hold my beer.”

Jazwares, the maker of Squishmallows plush toys (if you don’t have a kid, just know that these things are a BFD) is suing Build-A-Bear (+0.04%).

They claim that BBW (I sh*t you not, that’s Build-A-Bear’s ticker symbol) ripped off Squishmallows with its Skoosherz’s line. Squishmallows claims Skoosherz has a lot in common with its stuffed animals.

*Looks at both products side by side* Ok, perhaps Squishmallows has a case…

Fun fact: Jazwares is owned by Warren Buffett. Yes, that Warren Buffett. You see, Alleghany (the insurance company) made equity investments in Jazwares in 2014… and 2016. So in early 2022, when Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought Alleghany, it became the new owner of Jazwares… and Squishmallows.

+ Name something more American than a Texas oilman working his way up from humble wildcatter to legendary billionaire. I’ll wait.

Diamondback Energy (+9.3%) took out Autry Stephens’ Endeavor Energy in a cash and stock deal that valued the Permian Basin producer at $26B. The combined company will be worth ~$50B and have the capacity to pump 816k barrels per day. I love the smell of energy independence in the morning.

The big picture… Consolidation is the name of the game in the US O&G industry right now. Exxon bought Pioneer Resources for $60B in October, and Chevron bought Hess for $53B just a few weeks later. In the words of Goldberg… “Who’s next?”

+ Ah sh*t, here we go again. Bitcoin mooned yesterday, hitting $50k for the first time since late 2022. The OG crypto appears to have powered through the large post-ETF approval selloff. (Read)

+ Wish walked so Temu could run spend hundreds of millions of dollars of Super Bowl ads…

ContextLogic (+39.1%) unloaded Wish.com at a deep discount… which checks out, to be honest. Singapore’s Qoo10 bought the discount online retailer for $173M in straight cash homie. When it IPOed, Wish was valued at $14B.

Temu and Shein have copy and pasted Wish’s playbook. They spend without regard for human life on Facebook and Instagram to attract users (so much so that Zuvk mentioned that the companies moved the needle in the most recent quarter). And then sell poorly made products to stupid Americans at ultra-cheap prices… (Read)

Here's what I'm keeping an eye on today...

+ Coca-Cola, Shopify, Airbnb, Marriott, Datadog, Molson Coors, MGM Resorts, Hasbro, and Lyft report

+ January CPI drops

My prediction of tomorrow’s TWC headlines, today…

~ Crystal ballin’… “Arm shares jump another [absurd amount]” (timeline: tomorrow)

Shares of Arm were up another 29% yesterday. Allow me to remind you they are now up more than 90% after dropping earnings last Thursday.

Thanks to everyone who gave a testimonial. I’ll be reaching out in the next few days if I plan to use yours.

Here’s today’s question…

Reply directly to this email.

Oh, and one more thing…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional