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Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on the docket today…
Novo Nordisk can’t catch a break (thanks, Hims), Starbucks’ CEO says its turnaround is ahead of schedule (but the numbers say otherwise), and the biggest acquisition of 2025. But first…
Let’s take a look back at the July 30, 2021 edition of The Water Coolest…
Trevor Milton (remember him?) was found guilty on 3 counts of criminal fraud for, and I quote, "lying about nearly all aspects of the business" in order to increase the share price and sales at the EV company.
T-Pain was charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. One of the securities fraud counts included making false statements about the company, like, for example, "we can make electric vehicles."
A year later, Trev was sentenced to 4 years in prison and forced to pony up nearly $160M in restitution. But before he could serve any time (or pay any investors back), President Trump granted him a full pardon.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 8 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
PS, loving The Water Coolest? Forward it to someone who wants needs Reese’s Oreo Cups in their life. If you CC me ([email protected]), I’ll send you both something.
PPS, did someone with great taste (who knows how much you love Reese’s and Oreos) forward this to you? Subscribe here.
Fat losses
Novo Nordisk is about to back up the Brinks truck for a Sydney Sweeney campaign…
The big pharma hell bent on Making America Skinny Again suffered some fat losses yesterday. Shares of Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 4.72% ), which was the most valuable company in Europe at one point, fell 22% on the day.
WTF happened?
Well, for starters, the maker of Wegovy announced its new CEO. You might recall the company caught investors off guard when it ousted CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen in May… without a replacement in mind. Tell me you pulled an Astronomer CEO, without telling me…
And judging by investors’ reaction yesterday, you’d think new Chief Exec Maziar Mike Doustdar was a regular on Esptein island. Mike, as he’s known (because god forbid we learn how to pronounce ‘Maziar’), has been with the company since 1992… and I think it’s safe to assume shareholders weren’t looking for the safe bet.
If Novo planned to distract investors with the CEO announcement, it didn’t work…
You see, the Ozempic maker also slashed its full-year guidance… again *realizes that’s two times in 2 months*. Sales growth is now expected to come in between 8% to 14% vs. a prior target of 13% to 21%. It also adjusted its operating profit guesstimate (downwards). You hate to see it.
Y tho?
Two words: Ozempic and Wegovy. Sales for the company’s blockbuster drugs are expected to be softer than the mid-section of a prime GLP-1 candidate. Part of the problem appears to be knock-offs (looking at you, Hims), but that issue should clear up thanks to the FDA removing Wegovy from its shortage list…
So what’s actually derailing Novo’s big growth plans?
Welp, it turns out not as many members of the human race care about treating their body like a temple after all. That, or they just can’t afford the injections. Friendly reminder: many insurance plans won’t cover Wegovy, which can cost upwards of $2k per month out of pocket.
It probably doesn’t help that the weight loss market has gotten saturated. And not just with Instagram dupes. See: Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Did I mention that literally every other pharma company has a weight loss drug in development (and Novo’s next-gen prescription didn’t do so hot at trials)?
Former Zillow exec targets $1.3T market
The wealthiest companies tend to target the biggest markets. For example, NVIDIA skyrocketed nearly 200% higher in the last year with the $214B AI market’s tailwind.
That’s why investors are so excited about Pacaso.
Created by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso brings co-ownership to a $1.3 trillion real estate market. And by handing keys to 2,000+ happy homeowners, they’ve made $110M+ in gross profit to date. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
No wonder the same VCs behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay also invested in Pacaso. And for just $2.90/share, you can join them as an early-stage Pacaso investor today.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
+ Bad news, introverts… Starbucks baristas are about to be more talkative than an Uber driver when you forget to turn your preference to “STFU.”
During its earnings call, $SBUX ( ▲ 2.55% ) unveiled its Green Apron Service that’s about to have baristas going all Old Country Buffet on our sorry a**es…
The company that’s had major (sorry) Venti issues attracting customers will spend nearly $500M on labor-related costs over the next year to “Get Back to Starbucks.” Part of that budget will go to Sharpies and more training on how to say “Welcome to Starbucks.”
New technology (presumably AI) will also help with staffing and scheduling. And the slinger of the finest child-labor-sourced coffee in the game plans to turn its attention to IRL transactions. That means cutting down on mobile-only stores and adding seating back to cafes. In many locations, seats were removed, so customers had room to wait around and complain about how long their mobile order was taking.
Imagine putting the future of your company in the hands of a 20-something blue-haired fine arts major…
But that’s exactly what Brian Niccol is doing. And he better hope it works. During the same earnings call, Starbucks announced that same-store sales fell for the 6th quarter in a row. On the bright side, the company beat on the top line. But, more importantly, Brian Niccol pinky promises that the company’s turnaround is ahead of schedule. Sure, Brian…
+ Educators have been lying to the youth of America for centuries. According to Union Pacific $UNP ( ▼ 0.38% ) and Norfolk Southern $NSC ( ▼ 0.05% ), it actually took until the year of our lord 2025 to get a true transcontinental railroad, you guys. That’s right, Union Pacific’s proposed $85B acquisition of Norfolk Southern will create the first-ever railroad that can get you from one end of the States to another.
It’s fair to assume approval of this deal is far from guaranteed, because, you know, monopolies and all…
+ Rumor has it that JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 0.16% ) is the leader in the clubhouse in the race to replace Goldman as the financial partner for the Apple Card. If JPM wins the business, it would be a major W over the likes of Amex, Synchrony, and Barclays.
+ Make debt your b*tch. There's a much easier way to pay down crippling debt faster, you guys. Spoiler: it's using a no-interest credit card. Some of the top credit card experts identified one of their favorites that puts interest on ice until nearly 2027 AND offers up to 5% cash back on qualifying purchases. Start paying down debt faster with this top pick. [FYI, this is a partner post]
+ The perfect snack doesn’t exi—
Desperate times call for desperate measures at Mondelez $MDLZ ( ▲ 0.18% ) and Hershey $HSY ( ▲ 0.42% ). The candy makers/enemies are combining forces to bring the world Reese’s Oreo Cups AND Oreo Reese’s Cookies (and you already know what today’s poll is about…)
Side note: How bad does Novo Nordisk feel about itself that it exists in the same world as these things and can barely make ends meet?
+ A Spotify $SPOT ( ▼ 0.41% ) playlist, but it’s just "So You Had a Bad Day” by Daniel Powter…
Spotify CEO Daniel Ek be like “It's just one of those days when you don't wanna wake up, everything is f*cked, everybody sucks…” The music streamer just had its worst day in 2 years, falling 11% after a brutal earnings report. Not only did it miss on the top and bottom line, but it swung to a loss in the quarter, and gave a pretty bleak outlook. The CFO blamed execution.
I teamed up with some awesome newsletters to give you a little summer shopping spree.
One lucky winner will get a $2,000 Nike gift card to rebuild their entire sorry a** closet.
Entering to win is so easy your intern (you know, the one whose dad is your boss) could do it (although they would probably ask ChatGPT)…
Head to the giveaway website
Patiently wait (one lucky winner will be selected at random on August 8th)
So what are you waiting for? Enter right now.
+ US stocks “closed in the red Tuesday as investors digested a wave of corporate earnings and economic data, while bracing for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due Wednesday.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The 10-year yield “fell on Tuesday, one day before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “gained more than 3% on Tuesday as President Donald Trump ramped up pressure on Russia over its war in Ukraine and on optimism that a trade war between the U.S. and its major trading partners was abating.“ (Reuters)
+ The “smart” money thinks there’s a 42% Tesla Optimus robots will be available for purchase before 2027. (Kalshi)
⏪ Yesterday…
+ Best Buy, Royal Bank of Canada, Burlington Stores, Kohl's, Foot Locker, and Li Auto reported in the AM
+ Costco, Dell, Marvell, Zscaler, Ulta Beauty, Uipath, Elastic NV, NetApp, Ambarella, and The Gap reported after hours
+ US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm to talk trade
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ The Fed meeting ends, which means we get an interest rate decision and a J-Poww presser
+ Altria, ADP, Hershey, Etsy, Garmin, Kraft Heinz, GE, Fiverr, Wingstop, Humana, UBS, and GSK report before the bell
+ Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Qualcomm, Arm, Grab, Carvana, Ford, eBay, Western Digital, and Public Storage report in the PM
Yesterday, I asked, “Are we getting a rate cut this week?”
89.5% of you said “NOPE.“
Here’s what some of you guys had to say…
NOPE: “Rate cut? I haven't heard that name in years”
Yessir: “Wishful thinking but probably not just to add to the drama of who has more power.”
NOPE: “J Poww was so late with the rate hikes at the beginning of this, I think he thinks he can make up for it by being equally late to cut on the back end.”
NOPE: “But we definitely WILL get a lot of angry tweets.”
Here’s today’s question…
Modelez and Hershey can only produce one. Which do you want?
The future we’ve been waiting for.
— #Bojan Tunguz (#@tunguz)
8:50 PM • Jul 29, 2025
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.