Hey there weekday warrior. Here’s what’s on tap today… Europe wants to f*ck around (and, presumably, find out), Polymarket & Kalshi are eating everyone’s lunch, and OpenAI is doing exactly what you’d expect.
Enjoy the next 3 minutes and 39 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
Eurotrashed
On Friday, Donny Deals threatened to enact some sweeping Euro tariffs on any and all nations in opposition to the US/Greenland M&A deal.
The proposed duties include 10% on all goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland. If the US can’t buy Greenland before June 1st, those will jump up to 25%. And to be clear, this is on top of the current EU and UK tariffs (15% and 10%).
As you might have guessed, European stocks tumbled yesterday in response to fears of a full-blown transatlantic trade war. Friendly reminder: US markets were closed for the holiday, but futures are pointing towards a bloodbath.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 1.2%. Meanwhile, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 fell 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively. Just me, or is it kinda racist that the European markets aren’t closed for MLK Day?
Euro luxury and auto shares took the biggest hits, including LVMH $LVMH ( 0.0% ), BMW $BMWYY ( 0.0% ), and Volkswagen $VWAGY ( ▼ 2.48% ).
So will the Europeans take it lying down?
Time will tell… (but, yes, probably)…
Supposedly, France (lol) is pushing for the EU to use its “Anti-Coercion Instrument” (ACI) to restrict US supplier access to the EU market. Not to mention a potential $108B in retaliatory tariffs…
I’m not mad… I’m disappointed…
Turns out some of you still haven’t completed this 5-minute survey that will help make your TWC experience even better in 2026.
And if my guilt trip doesn’t work… friendly reminder that one lucky (random) survey participant will win $500 in straight cash homie just for getting to the end.
+ “iF sOMeThINg Is FrEe, YoU’Re ThE PrOdUcT”
In what has to be the least surprising news of all time, on Friday, OpenAI said it’s planning on slinging ads in ChatGPT to free users.
Why?
Partially because Sam Altman is sick and tired of you freeloaders. @sama said, “It is clear to us that a lot of people want to use a lot of AI and don’t want to pay, so we are hopeful a business model like this can work.” Oh, and someone has gotta pay for that $1.4T in infrastructure spend.
On the bright side, ChatGPT pinky promises AI results will not be influenced by ads and that it will not sell your data. Friendly reminder… so did Facebook.
+ Kalshi and Polymarket: *ignore every gambling law ever and inexplicably succeed*
Legal online sports books:
DraftKings $DKNG ( ▼ 1.13% ) and Flutter Entertainment $FLUT ( ▼ 2.32% ) shares got rekt Friday after new analysis showed what we all already know: Kalshi and Polymarket are drinking their milkshake. DKNG shares dropped 8%, and Flutter (read: FanDuel) fell 6.3%.
The numbers don’t lie: NFL Wild Card week hit a record $720M in bets on Kalshi. Meanwhile, NY state gambling data showed traditional sportsbooks dropped 40% YoY during the week of the Wild Card games.
Forget who you got winning Super Bowl LX, will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech?
+ Live look at Novo Nordisk shareholders seeing share price gainz…
Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 2.65% ) had a yuge Friday after data showed its new GLP-1 pill is getting mainlined like poppers at the Grindr holiday party. NVO shares jumped over 8% on Friday.
Wegovy-but-make-it-a-pill locked in around 4.2k prescriptions in its first week. Compare that to Eli Lilly’s $LLY ( ▲ 0.28% ) pitiful 1.9k Zepbound scripts during its first week on the market.
Love comparing GLP-1 sales like box office numbers.
> MSG boss James Dolan plans second US Sphere near Washington, DC (NY Post) // Ok, hear me out… the President rents the Sphere out for a Situation Room outing the next time we depose a world leader.
> Fed chief Powell to attend Supreme Court arguments on Trump bid to fire Lisa Cook (CNBC) // Hell hath no fury like a Fed chair scorned.
> US sells Venezuelan oil at 30% higher prices, completes $500M deal, energy secretary says (NY Post) // ROI = Regime. Overthrow. Income.
Last week, I asked, “What subscription category can you not live without (even if they jack up the prices constantly)?”
38.0% of you said, “Movie/TV streaming (Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, etc).”
Here’s what some of you guys had to say…
Movie/TV streaming (Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, etc): “My kid might punch me in the nuts if I tell him that we discontinued Spidey.”
Shopping (Amazon Prime, Costco, Sam's Club): “I would just increase my Costco hot dog intake to offset the increase in membership fees. And free shipping on Amazon for all the crap my wife buys pays for itself in a month.”
Movie/TV streaming (Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, etc): “I've stuck with YouTubeTV through thick and thin, even though its now more expensive than my monthly water bill.”
Music streaming (Spotify, Apple, YouTube Music, etc): “I am the frog waiting to be boiled”
Here’s today’s question(s)…
Yuge NFL weekend. Congrats to those of you who called the AFC/NFC Championship results in last week's poll (only 22% of you got AFC right. 45% of you got NFC right). Now, what's the Super Bowl gonna look like?
+ US stocks “on Monday night pointed to a downbeat session on Wall Street as President Donald Trump intensifies his rhetoric on Greenland, threatening to impose new tariffs on countries opposing the sale of the Danish territory to the U.S.” (CNBC)
+ The 10-year yield “rose on Friday as investors monitored the economic outlook and geopolitical concerns.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “fell Monday, with risk sentiment hit after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened economic sanctions on a number of European countries, a move which increases the prospect of a broader transatlantic trade dispute.” (Reuters)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) just gave Kevin Warsh a big boost in odds to become Trump’s Fed Chair nominee (63%). (Polymarket)
⏪ Yesterday…
+ It was the last day before the FOMC blackout period
+ The U.S. stock markets were closed for observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday
+ The World Economic Forum annual meeting got underway in Davos (think: Epstein’s island, but CNBC is invited)
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ 3M, DR Horton, U.S. Bancorp, and Fastenal report before the bell
+ Netflix, Interactive Brokers, and United Airlines report after the bell
+ Walmart will be officially added to the Nasdaq 100 at the beginning of the trading day
Oh, and one more thing…
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