Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on tap today… E*Trade may get to cut out Robinhood and SoFi from the SpaceX IPO, Kharg Island is Uncle Sam’s next target if Iran won’t make a deal, and the NFL is not happy that other people are trying to rig games (that’s its job).
Enjoy the next 3 minutes and 12 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
E*Trying
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in” - E*Trade, probably
Every trading platform wants a taste of this upcoming SpaceX IPO, but there can may only be one…
Morgan Stanley’s $MS ( ▼ 0.01% ) E*Trade is in talks with Elon & Co. to be the sole retail brokerage of the biggest IPO of all time.
That’d leave Vlad Tenev’s Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 1.3% ) and Justin Herbert’s SoFi $SOFI ( ▼ 0.53% ) completely out in the cold. Oh, and Fidelity $FNF ( ▲ 0.04% ) would be an afterthought too (so, nothing they’re not used to).
Obviously, the lead underwriters of the IPO over at MS are loving the idea of monopolizing all retail demand.
But how much of SpaceX is actually up for retail grabs anyway?
Fair question… really only about 30% of shares will go retail, and most of that is going straight to high-net-worth clients of the banks (so, not you). But that little slice of leftover pie (think: 5-10%) is up for grabs for retail investors like you.
And E*Trade could really use some good news…
Friendly reminder that Morgan Stanley acquired E*T for $13B in 2020. You know, right before HOOD started eating its lunch…
Friendly reminder just how yuge this IPO is shaping up to be…
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Survivors, welcome to week 5 of the Iran War. Yesterday, Donny Treaty threatened Iran that the US would “obliterate” Iran’s electric infrastructure and Kharg Island (think: Iran’s oil industry centerpiece) if the Strait isn’t opened and a peace deal can’t be reached.
On the other hand… DJT also said we’re now in serious discussions with a (all caps) “NEW AND MORE REASONABLE REGIME” already.
But despite the confusion, J-Poww gave us some good news yesterday. During a talk at Harvard, Jerome hinted that the temporary oil price shocks probably wouldn’t be enough for the Fed to hike rates.
+ Bad news for aspiring Super Bowl streakers…
The NFL wrote a strongly worded letter to prediction markets (look at you, Polymarket and Kalshi) asking them to avoid “objectionable bets.” Turns out the league isn’t happy about bets that can be easily manipulated by individuals relating to officials or insiders.
For instance, broadcast mentions, appearances by celebrities at games, or a halftime performer’s terrible first song choice were all mentioned, along with “inherently objectionable” bets like play injuries and misconduct…
We used to be a country, a proper country with moneylines, spreads, and 5-leg parlays. Not betting on whether T. Swift would go to a Chiefs game. Shame on us…
+ “F*ck them bears” - Bill Ackman, basically
Pershing Square’s founder dropped some knowledge bombs on all of us baby back b*tches (read: retail investors). Billy the Bull said the current market is creating low entry points for high-quality companies, including Fannie Mae $FNMA ( ▲ 51.24% ) and Freddie Mac $FMCC ( ▲ 47.26% ).
Per Bill, Iran is “one of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend.”
So, is it fair to say “hell is NOT coming?”
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> Air Canada CEO stepping down after fatal LaGuardia plane crash — for issuing his apology in English (NY Post) // “Baise ma vie.”
> Thieves steal 12 tons of KitKat bars in Europe chocolate heist (CNN) // In case you live under a rock…
> Meta starts testing a premium subscription on Instagram (TechCrunch) // “Shut up and take my money.” - absolutely nobody
> NFL Inks Deal With Tiger Woods’ TMRW Sports to Start Flag Football League (Bloomberg) // “Will there be mandatory drug testing? Asking for a friend.” - Tiger Woods
> Well, that’s one take…
Yesterday I asked, “What's the BEST kind of vacation?”
47.3% of you said, “Tropical beach resort.” And it wasn’t particularly close…
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my response in italics)…
Golfing trip with the boys: “Barely beat out the tropical vacation, but nothing like getting hammered, talking shit, and not giving a f*uck for a few days. Being married with children really swung my vote.” Next level use of asterisk.
European food & architecture tour: “Fine dining, day drinking and ripping cigs are not just encouraged, but required...and the best part is the indulgences don't matter because you walk everywhere. Tbh, I don't know about the "architecture tour" part of this answer...I guess it's cool...I guess." Europe cigs don’t count.
Wildlife safari: “Setting up tents with a guided group in Botswana’s Okavango Delta with elephants nearby and then listening to local villagers sing by light of the campfire, does more for the soul than a dozen beach resorts." Ok, but have you ever had a pina colada at a swim-up bar?
Tropical beach resort: “Many of the others are fine, but most require "activities" and "schedules." Vacation should be rest and relaxation, and doing what you want when you want.” That seemed to be the gist of the feedback.
Mountain cabin hideout: “No people, just hiking and beer. Merica.” Is that you, Kid Rock?
Here’s today’s question(s)…
We all need to stop daydreaming about vacation and lock in, team. How do you lock in on work when you feel distractable or want to bail?
+ US stocks “mostly fell on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump's new warning to Tehran and a widening of the Middle East war offset optimism over his comments on U.S. discussions with Iran.” (Reuters)
+ The 10-year yield “slid broadly on Monday as new comments from the top Federal Reserve official quelled fears of tighter monetary policy.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “prices on Monday were largely higher in a topsy-turvy session, as escalating fighting in the Middle East appeared to contradict U.S. assertions that peace talks with Iran were ongoing.” (Reuters)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks there’s an 88% chance MicroStrategy announces another >1000 BTC purchase this week. (Polymarket)
⏪ Yesterday…
+ Rezolve AI reported before the bell
+ Gorilla Technology and Virgin Galactic reported after hours
+ J-Poww participated in a discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Bitfarms, T1 Energy, FactSet, and McCormick report before the opening bell
+ Nike, KULR, RH, SEALSQ Corp., Bit Digital, and Beyond Meat drop earnings after the bell
+ Hershey will hold its Investor Day event
Oh, and one more thing…
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