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Hey there weekday warrior,
I dream of a day when we don’t just have to talk about Donald Trump and DeepSeek. But today is not that day. So strap in.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 27 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
Death & tariffs
Bad news, Greenland… Donald Trump is following through on his campaign promises…
On Saturday, Donny Politics declared trade war, choosing to wage economic battles on three fronts. Mexico and Canada will be hit with 25% import taxes, and China will be dealt a 10% tariff. Energy resources (so, oil) from Canada will only be taxed at 10%.
The White House indicated that this was merely a shot across the bow and that Uncle Sam was willing to go nuclear should its frenemies decide to retaliate. After all, we do not negotiate with economic terrorists.
Per POTUS’ post on Truth Social, the tariffs were enacted “because of the major threat of illegal aliens and deadly drugs killing our Citizens, including fentanyl.”
“Don’t you put that evil on me, Ricky Bobby.” - Canada, Mexico, and China
The three countries clapped back. Justin Trudeau and Canada, which turns out, has a spine after all, slapped the US with 25% tariffs on $155B worth of goods making their way north of the border.
Meanwhile, Mexico said, “please hold.” They plan to retaliate but don’t exactly have a plan yet. Which is basically the economic equivalent of not having a good comeback during an argument, but thinking of the most incendiary reply three days later while you’re alone in the shower (after it doesn’t really matter).
China will retaliate by releasing a new version of DeepSeek that will result in a global selloff of AI stocks file a lawsuit via the World Trade Organization. It appears that Beijing either appreciates getting hit with just 10% tariffs or has suddenly become the adult in the room.
“What are you laughing at, EU?” - Donald Trump
Despite not facing any duties (this time around) the EU chimed in that it “regrets” the moves against Mexico, Canada, and China…. which means it’s only a matter of time until tariffs are unleashed like the crashing of a thousand waves.
Ah sh*t, here we go again…
Of course, economists’ biggest bone to pick with tariffs is that they could usher in a new wave of inflation. The concern is that cheaper goods from places like Mexico, Canada, or China, will suddenly either cost 25%+ (or 10%) more (think: tariffs will be passed on to end consumers) or will be made in America at a higher price (spoiler: there’s a reason iPhones aren’t made in Palo Alto). Ok, maybe they’ve got a point…
Trump and Co. would argue that the short-term pain is worth the long-term gain. Paying higher prices for a few months could result in more favorable trade terms that would help the US maintain its spot atop the global economic leaderboard.
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+ “Shenanigans.” - SemiAnalysis
Semiconductor research & consulting firm SemiAnalysis is calling bullsh*t on DeepSeek. The new #1 AI App claims that its training costs totaled just ~$5.5M. But SemiAnalysis hit them with the “um, ackchyually” in a new report. SA estimated that DeepSeek’s hardware spend likely adds up to over $500M when accounting for R&D and cost of ownership.
SemiAnalysis isn’t the only one trying to poke holes in DeepSeek’s immaculate conception. OpenAI is reviewing evidence that DeepSeek harvested data from ChatGPT, a process known as distillation, that goes against OpenAI’s TOS. “lol,” say the dozens of plaintiffs suing OpenAI for stealing their copyrighted data to train ChatGPT.
+ Walgreens (-10.3%) is suspending its quarterly dividend while dealing with new litigation and debt refinancing. Shareholders were p*ssed… obviously. Shares dropped over 10% Friday on the news.
It’s actually more shocking that WBA investors haven’t become immune to bad news. CEO Tim Wentworth is on the warpath to cut costs, with 1.2k stores on the chopping block over the next several years. But the new threat of DOJ litigation has Temu CVS shook…
ICYMI: Walgreens is preparing to write a Publisher’s Clearing House-sized check after the DOJ filed a lawsuit a few weeks ago. It alleges that Walgreens’ pharmacists filled millions of illegitimate prescriptions since 2012. If true, the company could face penalties of $80k per infraction. So, yeah, it may make sense for the C-Suite to keep some powder dry.
+ It’s bulking szn…
December PCE (think: inflation) came in at 2.6% YOY, 0.2% higher than November’s numbers. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, core PCE, clocked in at a 2.8% reading. Both were in line with expectations. And I’m really starting to think it wasn’t transitory after all…
+ Imagine ‘Wall Street’ (not the weird one with Shia LaBeouf), but with more guns. The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) has submitted paperwork to the SEC to begin operations in 2026.
+ Imagine ‘The Social Network’, but with more guns. Meta (+0.3%) is considering a move from DE to Texas. Presumably, so Zuck can train jiu-jitsu with Joe Rogan full-time.
+ Trump Media (+0.8%) gifted nearly $800k of shares to 6 board members, including FBI Director-to-be Kash Patel and Education Secretary-to-be Linda McMahon. Nothing to see here.
+ The FDA approved Vertex Pharma’s (+5.3%) new non-opioid painkiller pill that may be less addictive than opioids… and probably half as fun, too.
+ Here’s what could get more expensive under Trump’s tariffs. Spoiler: you might want to skip the table-side guac.
+ Get away with 75k bonus points from arguably the greatest travel rewards card of all time. It’s time to make your credit card rewards your entire personality.
+ LinkedIn to Tell Job Seekers How Likely They Are to Get a Response. I’ll save you the trouble: it’s approximately 1%.
FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.
+ US stocks “lost ground on Friday after the White House said tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China will take effect on Saturday, reigniting fears of a coming trade war with the nation's closest trading partners.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The 10-year yield “ticked higher Friday afternoon after the White House said that tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will begin this weekend.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “prices rose in aftermarket trading on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects his administration to decrease proposed tariffs on Canadian oil from 25% to 10%, and to impose duties on oil and gas around Feb. 18, later than initially feared.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “declined by approximately 7.2% over the last seven days — faring better than most altcoins.” (CoinTelegraph)
+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia -3.6% 2) MicroStrategy Inc. -1.5% 3) Tesla +1.0%
⏪ Friday, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Abbvie, Colgate, Eaton, Grainger, and Charter Communications reported before the bell. Plus we got the core PCE inflation report.
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Tyson Foods reports before the bell
+ Palantir and NXP Semi report after-hours
Friday, I asked, “Would you want to be the only person to watch the greatest sports game EVER, but you can't talk about it?”
79.4% of you are a hard “no.”
Here’s what some of you guys had to say…
No: "The best games are the ones I'll tell my grandchildren about... What's the use of seeing Bartolo Colon hit a home run if there's no one else to share that joy with?”
No: “I know Saban is saying yes so he could bury the Kick-Six footage and never have to talk about it again.” Coach, if you're reading this, let us know where you stand.
Yes: “I’m just assuming I’m allowed to gamble on it. If not, probably a no.”
No: “I have already seen it. It was Game 4 of the 2005 World Series. RIP White Sox.” White Sox and World Series in the same sentence? Weird.
And here’s today’s question…
Blows my mind that some of you actually carry cash in 2025.
How it feels listening to an earnings call for a company where you hold 0.12 shares
— #Boring_Business (#@BoringBiz_)
6:52 PM • Jan 31, 2025
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.