Hey there weekday warrior,
Here’s what’s on tap today… Anthropic is about to bust, Accenture is perhaps the best thing to come across my desk in the last 6 months, and Sydney Sweeney has got yuge double quadruple valuation power.
Now, enjoy the next 3 minutes and 58 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
PS… thanks in advance for doing your part in helping keep TWC like the Fed (think: free and independent) by checking out today’s advertising partner.
Dario Andretti
Dario, three weeks ago: “We need to slow down”
Dario, yesterday:
Anthropic just announced D-Day (D for doom, obviously).
Dario and the slowdown doomers are looking to go public before Thanksgiving, with the formal marketing teed up for as early as the week of November 9, which, post-midterms, duh.
Expected valuation: North of $2T (sup, Elon).
Per its S-1, Claude pulled in $4.6B in revenue last year, up 12x. But also, net loss: $42B. Woof.
Fun fact: the IPO prospectus has warnings about “existential risks to humanity” and says models may show “self-preserving behaviors," including attempts to "resist shutdown," "conceal or manipulate information" and behavior "resembling blackmail."
Wait, what?
Friendly reminder that Scam Altman was supposed to go first, then postponed the IPO over safety concerns.
But… if you ain’t first, you’re last.
Brazil votes for president on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate clears 50%
Brazil has been on traders' screens for months, and the things driving it are still unresolved.
Brazil votes for president on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate clears 50%.
The race has tightened all year, and the central bank is several cuts into an easing cycle that started at a 15% policy rate.
REX wrote up what is driving it, and where their ETNs fit.
BRZL and BRZD are the only US-listed exchange-traded products built to give +3X and -3X of the daily move in EWZ, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF.
Daily trading tools for sophisticated investors. Subject to BMO credit risk.
🛑 Friendly reminder: our advertising partners help us keep the lights on around here, so do me a solid and check out MicroSectors by REX.
+ Me: “So what do you DO?”
Accenture:
Accenture $ACN ( ▲ 15.78% ) mooned 22% yesterday for its best day ever, which, wasn’t AI supposed to kill guys like that?
Top and bottom lines both beat (think: $3.29 EPS and $18.6B revenue).
Per CEO Julie Sweet, we’re looking at “the continued trust our clients place in us to help them reinvent and create value.” It’s called creating shareholder value… look it up.
Friendly reminder: the stonk is still down 18% on the year because everyone assumed AI would eat consulting.
Consultants: 1. Robots: 0.
+ These b*tches (don’t) want Nikes…
Nike $NKE ( ▼ 0.71% ) served up an earnings beat but a revenue miss yesterday. Revenue dropped 4% to $11.2B, with the Chinese market down 26%.
Shares of the swoosh are down over 40% this year. Friendly reminder: this is year 2 of its turnaround plan… so, not great, Bob.
Just do it (tank the share price).
Donny Diesel told the European mind (think: Germany and France) to buss open their emergency reserves or else the US might stop exporting diesel altogether.
Ideally: 120M barrels over six months. Quick math: that’s about a third of the EU’s stockpile…
Apparently, this issue didn’t come up last week when #47 met with Macron for the UN GA.
ICYMI (which, you didn’t), Sydney Sweeney’s viral viDDeo for Novig got everyone all horned up for "sports prediction markets.”
Novig’s valuation has reportedly quadrupled to $2B after sending investors from six to midnight in more ways than one.
Friendly reminder: the last time Syd fixed a company was American Eagle, which pulled in a million new customers, but has since managed to piss away its gainz.
“This time is DDifferent…” - Novig investors probably
Here’s the ad again, just in case you want to help skyrocket this email’s clicks… (friendly BONK).
> Find out what the hell is going on in Brazil and why the country has been on traders’ radars for months. REX breaks it all down. Read the article now
> GM reports 5.5% decline in third-quarter U.S. sales as EV sales drop // You guys remember when everyone thought EVs were about to hit?
> (Wednesday) Micron beats on earnings and issues strong guidance as data center revenue jumps 11-fold // Too much winning.
> (Wednesday) Anthropic co-founder Daniela Amodei and husband used stuffed-animal ‘advisory council’ for workplace conflicts: report // …
> (Wednesday) Paramount-Warner Bros. expected to tap Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz for top job: sources // There’s definitely a kill list.
> (Wednesday) Stop Insider Trading Act bill blocked by Senate Democrats // “A December study by Common Cause found that last year members of Congress from both parties executed 13,324 trades totaling $635.6 million.”
> (Tuesday) Disney laying off around 300 employees in latest cuts under new CEO Josh D’Amaro // A job is a wish your heart makes...
> (Tuesday) Smart ring maker Oura yanks IPO at last minute, latest company to pump brakes over ‘market uncertainty’ // …
On Tuesday, I asked, “Are you going to watch this?”
53% of you said, “Yes, eventually, when I can stream it…” This is why AMC will never rip again…
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my response in italics)…
Yes, eventually: “Yes, because I will be able to see that she never had a heart or a soul; just pure greed. Rated ‘R’ for revolting.” That’s not what I heard the R rating was for…
Nah, who cares?: “it’s not the big short 2, color me dissapointed.” It’s honestly all I think about.
Yes, eventually: “She’s bath salts level crazy, just look at those eyes but not too long.” Could get lost in them…
Hell yes: “Nathan Fielder is on my 100% trust list. Will blindly trust, and go see, anything he puts together.” Correct answer.
Yes, eventually: “I’d like to see it, wife couldn’t give a f*ck, me streaming it at a later date it is.” They don’t understand.
Here’s today’s question(s)…
Pick one to invest in for the next 365 days...
+ US stocks slipped Tuesday (S&P 500: -0.2%), fell again Wednesday (S&P 500: -0.3%), then ticked up Thursday (S&P 500: +0.2%) to kick off October. A Green Day. Guess markets wake up when September ends…
+ The 10-year yield dipped slightly Tuesday, rose nearly 4 basis points Wednesday to 5.293% (near its highest since 2007) ahead of the jobs report, then slid Thursday after touching a 24-year high.
+ Oil fell Tuesday on recovering Middle East exports, rose about $1 Wednesday on stalled US-Iran talks to cap a ~14% monthly gain for Brent, then jumped more than $4 Thursday after reports of more US troops and carriers heading to the region and China suspending oil-product exports. Rip.
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks there’s a 2% chance that Canva IPOs this year (“so you’re telling me there’s a chance…”). (Polymarket)
Oh, and one more thing….
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