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Hey there weekday warrior. Here’s what’s on tap today… Donny Healthcare just put the insurance industry in a body bag, UPS drivers are down bad, and Redwire just secured the military industrial complex bag.
Enjoy the next 3 minutes and 10 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
Call a doctor
“If tomorrow I tell the press that, like, a retaliatory tariff is coming, nobody panics because it’s all part of the plan. But when I say that one little, old Medicare plan will die, well then everyone loses their minds.” - Donny Healthcare, probably
Healthcare stonks tumbled yesterday after #47 turned his budgetary Eye of Sauron toward the Medicare Advantage program.
The new Trump admin proposal would slash the average payment increase for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027 to… wait for it… 0.09%. Or as we like to call it in the business (note: I am not in the business), “a rounding error.”
For context, that’s a whole lot less than expectations of a 4-6% rate increase for the year of our lord 2027…
So why does the rate matter?
Well, that government rate determines how much Medicare-contracted private insurers can charge for monthly premiums and benefits.
Per CMS Administrator Dr. Oz (reminder: not a joke), “CMS is helping ensure beneficiaries continue to have affordable plan choices and reliable benefits, while protecting taxpayers from unnecessary spending that is not oriented towards addressing real health needs.”
Plan provider Humana $HUM ( ▲ 0.2% ) and UnitedHealth $UNH ( ▲ 3.02% ) both plummeted ~20%, while CVS $CVS ( ▲ 2.65% ) fell 14%. UnitedHealth hasn’t been down this bad since… well, you know.
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+ “I’ve got a big one for ya.” - CEO Carol Tomé
UPS $UPS ( ▲ 0.68% ) announced yesterday that it’ll cut 30k jobs this year and shut down 24 buildings as it breaks up with Andy Jassy. The brown short kings are winding down their partnership with Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 5.56% ) in the midst of a total corporate turnaround (think: eliminated 48k jobs last year and closed 93 buildings).
FedEx’s little bro expects to save $3B from winding down operations with the makers of the Fire phone. Which is what I’d say if I were losing my biggest client too…
+ “Ready for dome, 55th exit, damn, damn, already we home.” - Cam’ron Redwire investors
Defense contractor Redwire $RDW ( ▲ 14.09% ) shares went parabolic after joining the ranks of Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 4.53% ), Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▲ 2.36% ), and Anduril as a part of the DoD’s new $151B contract. For what, you might ask? 2 words: Golden. Dome.
The idea is to build a missile defense system similar to Israel’s Iron Dome.
+ From the team that brought you Sydney Sweeney bathwater soap…
Sydney Sweeney hard-launched her new lingerie brand, SYRN, by risking arrest. Your girlfriend’s least-favorite actress filmed herself hiking to the Hollywood sign and hanging some Double D bras off the letters.
Turns out, you’re not actually allowed to touch those letters, no matter how good your genes are. Now, Sydney could (read: definitely won’t) face criminal charges for trespassing and vandalism. So anyway, when’s the IPO?
> Amazon Is Closing Its Fresh Grocery, Go Convenience Stores (Bloomberg) // At least we’ll always have this…
> Amazon bungles Wednesday layoff plan with misfired internal email (Reuters) // You had one job, HR…
> TikTok’s new owners accused of censoring Minneapolis ICE shooting, blocking word ‘Epstein’ (NY Post) // [redacted]
> Pinterest shares plunge 10% as move to cut hundreds of jobs shocks investors (NY Post) // What do you mean Google Images with more buttons didn’t have a competitive edge?
> Um, what?
Yesterday, I asked, “I'm feeling sentimental... how did you make out from the whole GameStop 1.0 (think: 2021) situation?”
74.3% of you said, “I never bought (I have the risk appetite of Warren Buffett).”
Here’s what some of you guys had to say…
I never bought (I have the risk appetite of Warren Buffett): “Not taking stock advice from randos on Reddit. That's just pump and chump”
I sold at a profit (paper hands): “Had to diamond hand till that dead cat bounce a few weeks later but took the money and ran then”
I never bought (I have the risk appetite of Warren Buffett): “I was too busy eating glue and loading up on bbby at the time.”
Other: “I just enjoyed from the sideline. Eating popcorn while hedgefunds stumbled and the 'little guys' won (for once)!!”
Other: “I bought the day before Robinhood froze everyone’s accounts on GME. So once the man released my shackles I sold all my stocks on Robinhood and boycotted.”
Here’s today’s question(s)…
Hypothetical: you're given $100k tax-free, but you must invest it for the next 10 years in one of the following. Which one are you picking to maximize profits?
+ US stocks “mostly rose Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting at a fresh record as optimism around tech offset mounting political concerns ahead of megacap earnings and a Federal Reserve rate decision.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The 10-year yield “inched higher on Tuesday as investors awaited further economic data and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “settled 3% higher on Tuesday as producers reeled from a winter storm that hobbled crude production and drove U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports to zero over the weekend.” (Reuters)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks there’s a 9% chance that the US government will confirm the existence of aliens this year (which is better than nothing). (Polymarket)
⏪ Yesterday…
+ UnitedHealth, UPS, Boeing, Nextera, Raytheon, American Airlines, General Motors, Union Pacific, Northrop Grumman, HCA, and JetBlue reported before the bell
+ Texas Instruments, Seagate Technology, and Nextracker reported after hours
+ The New Home Sales report was released by the U.S. Census Bureau
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ ASML, Starbucks, GE Vernova, AT&T, MSCI, Automatic Data Processing, Amphenol, Progressive, Corning, Elevance, General Dynamics, and Danaher report before the bell
+ Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ServiceNow, IBM, Lam Research, Waste Management, Celestica, Fair Isaac, Southwest Airlines, and Levi's drop earnings after hours
+ The Nevada Gaming Control Board is expected to release its gaming revenue report for December
+ The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and J-Poww will hold a press conference
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.
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This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.