Will Trump beat Kamala in November? Will the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November? You can trade on that with Kalshi. With Kalshi's “event contracts” you can take positions on whether future economic or social events will happen or not. Like, say, elections. Start trading now.

Imagine watching Thursday Night Football instead of Tesla’s ‘We, Robot’ event.

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 25 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

– tyler

+ US stocks “fell after data showed hotter-than-expected inflation and a slowdown in the labor market, amplifying the debate on whether the Federal Reserve will opt for a smaller rate cut next month or a pause after a large September reduction.” (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “edged up Thursday as investors studied fresh inflation data, and commentary from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic that suggested his openness to a cutting pause.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “ jumped about 4% on Thursday on a spike in U.S. fuel use before Hurricane Milton barrelled across Florida, Middle East supply risks and signs that demand for energy could grow in the U.S. and China.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin “fell on Thursday, losing more ground as risk appetite remained constrained after inflation came in stronger than expected in the U.S. in September.” (Investing)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia +1.6% 2) Tesla -0.9% 3) AMD -4.0%

The market moves you need to know about…

+ Bah gawd that’s Celsius’ music. The energy drink maker jumped 14.4% on positive vibez about the convenience store industry coming out of the National Association of Convenience Stores trade show. Think: OPEC meeting, but instead of oil, it’s Zyn and Slim Jims.

– Shares of Domino’s Pizza fell 1.0% after it reported mixed earnings (spoiler: it missed on the top line). It probably didn’t help that the company offered weak guidance, pointing to “all you poors who can’t even afford a one-topping medium pizza for $7.99.”

Yeah, you can trade on that.

With Kalshi's “event contracts” you can take positions on whether future economic or social events will happen or not.

Last week Kalshi got the green light on its “Congressional Control Contracts" (think: who is going to win control of the House and Senate in November).

Oh, and as part of that historic regulatory approval, you can also bet on who you believe is going to take the White House. To put things in perspective, the last time election markets were legal and mainstream in the US was in 1924.

I just put my money where my mouth is, by placing a trade on [do you really think I'm going to tell you guys?].

Get your Presidential Election trade in now, whether it's a hedge or a show of support.

Right now you can get $20 for free when you make a first deposit of $100 or more and place a trade.

Check out Kalshi. They’re what keep the lights on around here, you guys.

You were watching Thursday Night Football on Amazon.

I was watching autonomous humanoid robots go-go dance at the Tesla ‘We, Robot’ event.

We are not the same (you are much cooler).

After nearly an hour delay (allegedly there was a medical issue in the crowd… which almost certainly means an Optimus bot went rogue) Elon Musk rolled through the Warner Bros. Studio lot in a Tesla Cybercab before taking the stage…

The Tesla robotaxi is pretty much exactly what you thought it would be: a car that looks like it was ripped straight out of every sci-fi movie ever. Lots of people on the internet are saying it looks not unlike a Cybertruck.

According to Musk, there will be no pedals or steering wheel in the taxi that’s slated to go into production in 2026 or 2027 (Elon admitted that he’s been a bit overzealous with timelines in the past). Oh, and you won’t have to plug the Cybercab in, it will charge via induction (think: putting your phone on one of those charging pads vs. plugging it in).

But those weren’t the only lies Elon told details Elon shared. He expects the car to cost ~$30k. To which everyone replied, “ok, now do the Model 3.”

But wait, there’s more!

You and 19 of your closest friends can get front-row hammered and cruise around in the Robovan wreaking havoc. Well, that, or you can start a competitor to the B*ng Bus.

Musk surprised the crowd with this…

And, in case you’re looking for some help around the house… or just something to talk to/make sweet, sweet love to, Elon showed off Optimus. And get this, it wasn’t a guy in a robot suit this time.

The Twitter owner believes the Optimus robot will cost between $20k and $30k. Hopefully, they are better at household chores than they are at dancing…

+ This is why we can’t have nice things…

Just when we thought inflation had gone the way of Jimmy Carter it started partying like it was 2023. Yesterday we got September CPI data, and it wasn’t pretty. Both core and the more missionary price index variations came in higher than expected.

Still, CPI dropped 0.1 percentage point from August. So we’ve got that going for us.

That wasn’t the only economic data keeping J-Poww up at night. Weekly jobless claims for the week ended October 5th came in way above expectations. It was the highest # since August of last year. Oof.

As you might have expected, markets overreacted to the news. But they could be onto something. The data threatens the soft landing narrative and could indicate that inflation isn’t under control after all.

Initially, markets appeared to give more f*cks about the employment (or lack thereof) data. The odds of a rate cut (25 bips) in November jumped. But they slipped after Fed Prez Bostic said he could see a pause in cuts at the next meeting.

+ “Cool story, bro.” - investors after seeing AMD’s new chip

At its annual AI event yesterday, Advanced Micro Devices (-4.0%) rolled out its Nvidia Blackwell (think: the Michael Jordan of GPUs) killer. And literally no one cared. Shares of AMD actually fell after CEO Lisa Su debuted the Instinct MI325X.

While the chip could put some pricing pressure on Nvidia, it’s unlikely to dent the ~80% market share Jensen Huang and Co. hold.

Nvidia has done a good job of getting its walled garden on. It’s built an entire ecosystem around its tools that make it damn near impossible (or at least very, very annoying) to rip out Nvidia’s chips.

+ This has gotta be the worst thing that happened to Canada since Avril Lavigne (the real Avril, not the dupe) and that guy from Sum 41 broke up…

Uncle Sam just went scorched earth on TD Bank (-5.3%) after the Canadian financial institution got its Wells Fargo on. TD pled guilty to money laundering and agreed to pay a $3B fine to make everyone forget all this happened.

Of course, no one is going to forget all this ever happened. You see, TD will also be hit with an asset cap. The bank can’t grow its assets above $434B until the government decides it’s gotten its sh*t together. Wells Fargo has been dealing with a similar punishment over the past few years.

+ Mark Cuban says his best employees share this soft skill: ‘You need to reduce stress, not create it’. Two words: dirty talk.

+ The No. 1 tip for landing a job offer in today’s tough job market, says HR expert of 20 years. Bribe the interviewer with unmarked, non-sequential bills.

🔥 Use these 2 words to help successfully negotiate your next raise. “F*ckyou payme”

You asked for more real estate content. Who am I to say no?

+ The U.S. Metros Where Home Prices Are Up the Most—but Still Boast Bargains Below $300K

+ The 10 U.S. Cities With the Lowest Risk of Climate Disasters—Including Hurricane, Fire, and Flood. Something tells me it’s mostly places where dreams go to die (read: the Midwest).

🔥 5 Housing Markets That Will Plummet in Value Before the End of 2025. Don’t go down with the ship.

FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.

⏪ Yesterday, we got CPI data and weekly jobless claims

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…

+ JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Bank of New York Mellon report in the AM

+ September producer price index data is released

+ The U of M consumer sentiment survey drops

Yesterday, I asked, “Team Pickleball or Team Tennis?”

Tennis took the W with 61.3% of the vote.

Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)…

And here’s today’s questions…

Oh, and one more thing…

+ This legend is slammed as 'pathetic' for working on laptop in the middle of his wedding

🔥 This guy preparing his house for Hurricane Milton is either the smartest man alive or the dumbest. I honestly can’t tell…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.