TOGETHER WITH
Hey there weekday warrior. Here’s what’s on tap today… Eli Lilly is an absolute wagon, markets are off their rocker, and the Warner Bros. Discovery bidding war just got interesting.
Enjoy the next 3 minutes and 42 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
Biggest pharma
Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 0.56% ) has come a long way since a fake “official company” Twitter account announced it was about to make insulin free (spoiler: shares cratered)…
On Friday, the biggest pharma entered the four-comma club. Shares jumped 1.7% to send the insulin makers’ market cap above the $1T mark for the first time. Not only does that make it the first healthcare company to join the elusive club, but it’s also the only non-tech stock to reach the promised land.
How’d Eli Lilly get here?
I’d like to think each and every one of us has done our part to contribute to the obesity epidemic in the United States (so, GLP-1s).
Eli’s Zepbound is what they like to call in the industry, a blockbuster drug. It’s basically the Nvidia GPU of the weight loss category. Eli's market share is nearly 60%.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “What about Ozempic, Tyler?” Well, Eli Lilly also owes Novo Nordisk a debt of gratitude for fumbling the bag spectacularly. Novo Nordisk was first to market (FFS, Ozempic is the Kleenex of the category), but major f*ck ups on the production and marketing front saw them blow a 28-3 lead. Oh, and did I mention Zepbound is slightly more effective?
Plus, Lilly’s R&D department is pretty much the SEAL Team 6 of virgins with doctorate degrees in chemistry. It looks like they will be the first to market with an oral weight loss pill. Its drug could get approval in early 2026…
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+ Are you not entertained?
Stocks rebounded bigly on Friday after Thursday’s bloodbath. The S&P 500 ended the day up a little more than 1%.
So WTF happened? NY Fed Prez John Williams mainlined a heroic hit of hopium directly into investors’ veins when he hinted a rate cut is still in play for December: “Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”
Markets skipped “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?” and went to fully bricked up. The odds of a rate cut went from 40% to 70% in a matter of hours.
Unfortunately, despite Friday’s gainz, markets still had a brutal week. Exhibit A: the Nasdaq fell 2.7%.
+ David Ellison: *attaches picture of his dad to Warner Bros. Discovery bid*
Bids are rolling in for Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD ( ▼ 1.25% ) ahead of a deadline for first-round offers… and you’re never going to guess who’s the leader in the clubhouse. David Ellison’s Paramount Skydance just submitted its fourth bid… three of which have been more of the unsolicited variety.
Netflix and Comcast also made offers… but only for the streaming and film assets.
+ I see no lie…
+ Bill Ackman eyes dual public offerings for Pershing Square and new fund, WSJ reports (Reuters) It appears that Bill has more to offer than dating advice…
+ Daily Mail Owner Reaches £500 Million Deal to Buy Telegraph (Bloomberg) It’s called consolidation, look it up…
+ JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon hosts birthday bash for King Charles III at bank’s NYC headquarters (NY Post) Live look at the King of England’s birthday…
+ US stocks “closed sharply higher on Friday as rising expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve offset concerns over lofty tech valuations.” (Reuters)
+ The 10-year yield was “lower on Friday after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams offered some hope to investors that the Fed may lower its key interest rate at its final meeting of 2025 next month.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “prices eased about 1% on Friday to settle at one-month lows as the U.S. pushed for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could boost global oil supplies, while uncertainty over U.S. interest rates curbed investors’ risk appetite.” (Reuters)
+ The “smart” money (prediction markets) thinks there’s a 60% chance Lane Kiffin will be the next head coach of LSU. (Kalshi)
⏪ On Friday…
+ U.S. flash PMI reports dropped
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Zoom, Symbotic, and Fluence report after the close
Friday, I asked, “When is it ok to start saying ‘let's circle back after the holidays’ (aka Christmas and New Year)?”
34.2% of you said “December 15.”
Here’s what some of you guys had to say…
Right now: “Management here has already checked out until January anyway.”
December 15: “Jen Psaki said it year round”
December 15: “Need to be closer to Christmas than Thanksgiving, and after the 15th vacations start.”
December 15: “need to know what the ‘right now’ people do for work”
December 22: “This means I'll be unavailable for at least 10 days and I don't want to be bothered by your issues until after the new year.”
Right now: “Honestly, we should be including Halloween as the start of "the holidays". Then once that becomes the norm, let's push it back to labor day.”
Here’s today’s question…
What's the best part of Thanksgving?
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.