Hey there weekday warriors,
It’s time to put your money where your mouth is.
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 30 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
+ US stocks “drifted higher on Wednesday as escalating Israel-Iran tensions fanned worries about a wider Middle East conflict, prompting overall caution in the market.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The 10-year Treasury yield was “higher on Wednesday as investors considered the state of the U.S. economy and eyed the latest developments in the Middle East.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “edged up on Wednesday on worries that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could threaten oil supplies from the world's top producing region, but a large build in U.S. crude inventories limited gains.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “and related stocks are experiencing a sharp decline in prices following Iran's attack on Israel on Tuesday.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia +1.5% 2) Tesla -3.4% 3) JD.com +4.3%
The market moves you need to know about…
– Shares of Conagra, the company behind Duncan Hines and Slim Jim, fell 8.0% following a brutal earnings report. CAG blamed the top and bottom line misses on consumers pumping the brakes on spending. Shame on you.
– Uncle Sam just made Humana its b*tch. The federal government slashed the quality ratings on Humana’s Medicare plans, which could have a major impact on sales. Following the most recent analysis, just 25% of Humana’s Medicare members are enrolled in plans with 4-star or better ratings. That’s down from 90%+. Shares tumbled 11.7% on the day.
Congressional “trading”
US presidential election markets are legal. Officially. Finally.
Kalshi prevails.
— #Tarek Mansour (#@mansourtarek_)
2:30 PM • Oct 2, 2024
“Because America, that’s why…” - the Federal appeals court (probably)
Just in case the stakes weren’t high enough in the US Presidential election (and Congressional races), now you can “bet” on it by way of futures contracts.
Yesterday, an appeals court turned over a Commodity Futures Trading Commission decision that halted trading of Kalshi’s “Congressional Control Contracts.” Did I mention you can bet on who will control Congress, too? *Paul Pelosi has entered the chat*
The CFTC fun police had shut the party down in September, arguing that trading the contracts would create “monetary incentives for voters to support particular candidates or incentivize the spread of misinformation.” It also pointed out that many states ban gambling on elections.
And they dug deep…
They went so far as to cite a “special rule” under the Commodity Exchange Act that allows the commission to play God if they believe a contract is contrary to the public interest.
Ok, but…
The three-judge appeals panel in DC went all “let me stop you right there.” They argued the CFTC “has failed at this time to demonstrate that it or the public will be irreparably injured.” Turns out the Mets didn’t take the biggest L yesterday…
What’s next?
Well, right now, you can bet on who you believe will win control of Congress in November. And starting around 4 PM EST today, you can bet on who will take the White House.
Meanwhile, the CFTC will probably enlist some better lawyers, head back to the drawing board, and try to play spoiler again soon…
+ Something tells me Elon is about to call analysts ‘boneheads’ on Tesla’s next earnings call…
Tesla (-3.4%) dropped its quarterly delivery numbers on Wednesday, and it’s a figure only Cathie Wood could love. Tesla handed over 462,890 vehicles in Q3 2024… like 17 of which were Cybertrucks. The problem? Analysts were expecting 469,828.
That means if Elon and Co. want to beat last year’s record-setting annual delivery number and keep their streak of year-over-year growth intact, they need to put up Diddy-baby-oil-sized numbers in Q4 (516k vehicles).
+ Just when you thought Elon’s day couldn’t get much worse…
OpenAI’s massive fundraise dethroned SpaceX as the most valuable startup in the game. The ChatGPT maker (and non-profit) raised $6.6B at a $157B valuation. In case you were wondering, yes, that makes it the largest venture capital deal of all time. Adam Neumann has gotta be big mad.
+ “Double chuck chocolate cookie 1 oz Platinum Bar PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan." - A.J. & Big Justice
Costco (+0.1%) is out here building a diversified portfolio of precious metals. On Wednesday, BJ’s older, more successful brother announced it would begin selling 1 oz. platinum bars for $1,089.99 to members on its website.
In case you've been living under a rock (or are European), Costco started slinging gold bars in 2023. And they quickly became more popular than $1.50 hot dog combos. Don’t believe me? The warehouse club is moving $200M worth of gold bars per month…
It probably doesn’t hurt that gold is up 40% in the past 12 months. Platinum is up closer to 10%.
+ RIP to the official pants of virgins…
Levi Strauss (-2.8% // -10.9% after hours) is looking to sell off its Dockers brand. And it’s hard to blame the denim maker. The khaki label has underperformed in a major way.
If not for Dockers, Levi Strauss would have had a very different quarter. Khaki sales fell 15%. And despite Levi’s strong performance, the company missed the Street’s top line expectations and trimmed its revenue guidance.
+ Smart tax strategies: It's your last chance to put in place key strategies that will optimize your taxes for 2024. Don’t f*ck this up…
+ How much money you need to retire comfortably in every U.S. state. Catch me in Del Boca Vista…
+ MIT economist says AI can only handle 5% of jobs, fears stock crash. Ok, Michael Burry.
🔥 Tom Brady to put his watch collection up for sale at Sotheby’s. Yet another athlete forced to sell off his prized possessions after losing all his money. Sad!
FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.
⏪ Yesterday, Conagra and Levi Strauss reported. Plus, we got an ADP jobs report.
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ Constellation Brands reports before the open
Yesterday, I asked, “What's the GOAT tortilla chip?”
No surprises here…
Doritos Nacho Cheese
Tostitos Scoops
Doritos Cool Ranch
LOTS of write-in love for Tostitos Hint of Lime.
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)…
Write in: "no tostito's hint of lime?..."
Write in: "Xochitl"
Write in: "I suppose one COULD eat Cool Ranch Doritos like the rest of the Philistines, but for my buck, I'm going with Tostitos Hint of Lime"
Write in: "Fritos scoops, simply the best." Fritos are corn chips. And what you have just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Write in: "3 words. Hint. Of. Lime."
And here’s today’s questions…
What's your go-to jean brand?
Oh, and one more thing…
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.