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Hey there weekday warriors,
ASML just did something we’re all guilty of (…especially in high school).
Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 34 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.
Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,
+ US stocks “closed lower on Tuesday as investors reacted to downbeat earnings from ASML Holding that dropped a day earlier than expected, sending chipmaker stocks lower across the board.” (Yahoo! Finance)
+ The 10-year Treasury yield “fell on Tuesday as bond traders kicked off a shortened trading week.” (CNBC)
+ Oil “fell 2% on Monday as OPEC again lowered its outlook for 2024 and 2025 global oil demand growth while China's oil imports fell for the fifth straight month.” (Reuters)
+ Bitcoin “climbed on Tuesday after Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris pledged to support a regulatory framework for crypto, while the prospect of delayed distributions by Mt Gox also buoyed sentiment.” (Investing)
+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia -4.5% 2) Trump Media -9.6% 3) ASML -16.2%
The market moves you need to know about…
+ Life comes at you fast. Amirite Walgreens? The pharmacy chain announced it’s closing more than 1.2k stores over the next 3 years. CVS’ little brother cited slowing sales. I bet none of this would have happened if they kept selling cigs to 18-year-olds. Shares popped 15.7% on news that the glorified convenience store was getting its sh*t together.
– Coty’s stock out here looking like that Sydney Sweeney crying meme. Shares of the beauty company plummeted 10.8% after warning about slowing makeup sales in the United States.
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ASML releases prematurely
Source: Giphy
Now ASML (-16.2%) investors know how their significant others feel after approximately 2.5 minutes of lovemaking. The manufacturer of semiconductor manufacturing equipment published its earnings prematurely yesterday.
It blamed a “technical issue” for releasing a day early. And, welp, it was just the beginning of a really sh*tty day for the Dutch company…
The report didn’t exactly scream “pick and shovel of the hottest industry in the game.” Results for the quarter were mixed. But it was ASML’s guidance that had investors going all “ight imma head out…”
Not only did it break the news that it expects 2025 sales to come in on the lower end of the previous forecast, but it expects ~20% of its revenue to come from China. Just one problem… during its last earnings call, ASML said that number was going to be closer to 50%. Woof.
Chip stocks across the board cratered.
WTF does it mean?
This might seem hard to believe, but the market may have overreacted. Everyone jumped to the same conclusion: if the maker of chip-making equipment isn’t printing money, then demand for chips must be slowing.
That might be true, but, friendly reminder… not all chips are created equal. While Jensen Huang is slinging GPUs like he’s Avon Barksdale moving red tops, other semi segments still have not fully recovered from the great supply chain clusterf*ck. That’s weighed on demand for ASML’s machines. Diversification is a b*tch, you guys.
It probably doesn't help that the US has ramped up restrictions on chips and, you guessed it, chip-making equipment being sold to China and other countries on the proverbial no-fly list.
+ Listen, it’s probably not a coincidence that right around the time that “man in finance” song (good, now you have it stuck in your head too…) went parabolic, so did investment banking revenue…
We are officially b*lls deep in earnings season with Citi, Goldman, and Bank of America reporting yesterday. And there was one common thread throughout all 3 earnings calls: the investment banking segment put the team on their back.
Of course, that doesn’t mean they all fared the same…
Citigroup shares fell more than 5% despite a top and bottom line beat. Investors were having none of its decision to put more cash on the sideline for loan losses.
Goldman beat the Street’s estimates but closed roughly flat. Even DJ D-Sol hinting at an “improving operating environment” couldn’t get investors bulled up.
Bank of America had a “big” day after beating on the top and bottom lines. Shares were up about half a percent. I bet Brian Moynihan didn’t have any issues getting an 8:30 at Dorsia last night…
+ “It’d be a lot cooler if you didn’t…” - NYT to Perplexity
The New York Times (-0.9%) just hit AI search engine Perplexity with a cease and desist. The Times is butt hurt about Perplexity accessing and using its content. To which Perplexity replied, “Don’t you have a Wordle to make you f*cking nerds?” “We are very much interested in working with every single publisher, including the New York Times.”
The NYT (and others) claims that the summaries Perplexity provides based on its content violate copyright law. Just wait until they get a load of what I’ve been up to for the last 7 years…
Unfortunately for the crossword company with a newspaper side problem, Perplexity is backed by a very influential, deep-pocketed investor: Mr. Jeff Bezos… perhaps you’ve heard of him?
+ GameStop (-0.2%) just cannot stop doing literally everything besides turning around its core business (think: offering customers pennies on the dollar for current year, triple-A game trade-ins).
Its most recent side quest? Becoming an authorized PSA dealer. Translation for everyone who has had s*x: collectors can drop off their baseball or Pokémon cards at select GameStop stores to get graded by PSA. Shares initially popped on the news… but then everyone remembered only Roaring Kitty can save GME.
+ Turns out the Tesla (+0.1%) Optimus robots at last week’s ‘We, Robot’ event sounded a lot like humans… mostly because they were humans…
4. Bartender Optimus confirming he's remote controlled
— #Min Choi (#@minchoi)
11:55 AM • Oct 12, 2024
+ The No. 1 way to get more respect at work: ‘I’ve been teaching it for decades,’ says leadership expert. #2 is sitting in your boss’s office when they’re not around and making your colleagues call you ‘Your Highness’
+ Is now the right time to apply for that travel card? There’s never been a better time to make airline miles a huge part of your personality.
+ A simple LinkedIn strategy helped this 25-year-old land 3 final-round interviews in weeks. Let me guess… now they sell a course about it?
🔥 ‘No one writes about “rich guy” early retirement’: My wife and I earn $300,000 a year and have $3.75 million. We have 3 kids. When can I quit working? Never. Now back to your cubicle.
🏠 Commercial Real Estate Investment Portfolio Diversification. Real estate hack: buy land near US military installations and sell it to foreign adversaries.
🏠 How a rare type of mortgage is landing homebuyers a 3% rate. Who needs a mortgage when you can squat?
🔥 The truth about cash flow with rentals. Prepare to be disappointed.
FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.
⏪ Yesterday we heard from J&J, Bank of America, Goldman, Citi, Charles Schwab, PNC, and Walgreens
⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…
+ ASML (jk), Abbott, Morgan Stanley, US Bank, and Citizens report before the open
+ CSX and Discovery drop earnings after-hours
Yesterday, we got into, “Would you rather win a Nobel Prize (yes, you get the $1M) or win $4M in the lottery?”
75.6% of you are taking the money and getting the f*ck out of dodge.
Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)…
Lottery: "Definitely not smart enough to use the Nobel prize to make more money."
Lottery: "4 is more than 1"
Nobel Prize: "Looks great on the resume." Think rental car places and hotels offer Nobel Prize winners any discounts?
Nobel Prize: "Best believe I'd be using the nobel prize winner line at the bar"
Nobel Prize: "The Nobel Prize assures you of a future of paid speaking engagements to which you can fall back on after losing your money on a Diddy style rager." How many bottles of baby oil does $1M buy?
And here’s today’s questions…
You get paid $1.5M per year, but you have to sleep for 18 hours a day (all 18 hours in one stretch, but you can pick your bed time). Are you taking the deal?
Oh, and one more thing…
Did you check out today's partner Autopilot yet? (spoiler: you can start trading like Nancy Pelosi TODAY)
What did you think about today's newsletter?
Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?
No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...
This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.